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Dollar rises as 'Trump trades' push up US bond yields
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Dollar rises as 'Trump trades' push up US bond yields

Traders betting that Donald Trump will defeat Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election sent the dollar rising to its highest level since July, which also pushed up 10-year U.S. Treasury yields.

With several important countries still undecided, the yield on 10-year government bonds reached 4.44 percent late Tuesday evening. The yield on 30-year government bonds reached 4.6 percent, the highest level in four months.

“The early trades favor Trump,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance.

The Mexican peso, which often suffers when Trump appears to be doing well, slipped about 3 percent and weakened to a two-year low of 20.7 pesos against the dollar. The Japanese yen fell about 1.3 percent to nearly 154 yen per dollar, its weakest in nearly a week.

Nervousness spread across markets and investors worried about the impact of the election.

Bitcoin, considered a “Trump trade” due to the belief that the former president would easily regulate cryptocurrencies if elected, rose above $75,000 to hit an all-time high.

U.S. stocks ended the voting session earlier on Tuesday with their strongest gains in six weeks as worried investors awaited the results of a vote that is expected to impact markets around the world. The S&P 500 closed the day up 1.2 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4 percent.

“The good news is that the wait for the US election is over, the bad news is that it's going to be a long night of volatility,” said Bob Savage, head of market strategy and insights at BNY, who described the sentiment on Tuesday An described it as “risky”. . . but shy about the lack of uncertainty.”

Stuart Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citi, said Tuesday evening that while markets appeared to be pricing in increased chances of a Trump victory, there was “a lot of information left,” such as the outcome of swing states Pennsylvania.

“People need to either hedge or express their views through these futures, and then when the markets open in the morning, we'll be able to see the more nuanced trades,” Kaiser said.

Most emblematic of the swings that marked Tuesday's action was Trump's social media group, Trump Media & Technology. Its shares rose as much as 15 percent before a sudden plunge briefly brought trading to a halt. They closed with a loss of 1.1 percent.

“There is a lot of anticipation as we await the results,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. “We all know how much is at stake in this election result, but until the polls close we don’t know which way to jump.”

Wall Street prepared for a long night by pausing software updates and booking hotel rooms for suburban traders, among other measures.

Ed Al-Hussainy, a senior interest rate analyst at Columbia Threadneedle, said his team had a larger-than-usual cache of cash to deploy as opportunities emerged in the markets.

“No one wants to stick their neck out,” Al-Hussainy said, adding he expects a race among investors that will increase risk once election results are more certain. “If you lag behind your competitors, you essentially get worse prices. Things get rich pretty quick.”

Investors fear there may be little clarity on the election outcome ahead of key interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England on Thursday.

William Vaughan, deputy portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, said the possibility of an unclear election result was adding “significant uncertainty” at the time of the Fed meeting, citing the four-day wait for the Associated Press to announce the winner of the 2020 election.

The Ice BofA Move Index, a closely watched gauge of investors' expectations about the future volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds, hit its highest level in more than a year on Monday as a mix of policy uncertainty and interest rate uncertainty hit $27 trillion market unsettled.

UBS analysts said the values ​​implied by options on the S&P 500 index suggested the benchmark could fluctuate sharply at the end of the week. The cost of purchasing protection against exchange rate fluctuations such as the Euro-Dollar has also skyrocketed.

The Vix index, Wall Street's so-called fear indicator, fell to about 20.5 after rising as high as 23.4 late last week. Tuesday's positive stock market returns likely contributed to the decline in implied short-term volatility, said Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management.

“I expect that to be pretty significant,” Orton said, adding that he is “very optimistic about where this market can go once the noise calms down.”

The crucial election is seen by investors as a potential turning point. If Republicans win the White House and both houses of Congress, investors worry that Trump's promised mix of tariffs and tax cuts could boost inflation and put upward pressure on interest rates.

This has led to a rally in the dollar and a rise in longer-term government bond yields in recent weeks.

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