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    • The Democrats are doing well, the Lake founders, smooth votes
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    The Democrats are doing well, the Lake founders, smooth votes

    Kathleen William Posted on

    Election Day is over and the presidential race appears to have been decided, while much else, at least in Arizona, remains undecided.

    The final results of the state's closest contests may not be clear for several days, but there are several trends worth watching to see if they will shape Arizona for the next election cycle.

    Here's what stands out late Tuesday:

    Democrats could do better than expected in Arizona

    Donald Trump, the former president and perhaps the president-elect, narrowly led in Arizona by a margin that could be intriguing if the race in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin didn't already seem decided.

    This is particularly notable given that nationally, Vice President Kamala Harris in particular and Democrats in general have fared poorly.

    But Arizona has a big star right now.

    The state has at least three broad types of voting: early voting, Election Day voting and “late voting.” Late-early ballots are ballots cast at the end that still require signature verification, a process that can take days.

    Many expected Republicans to do well early on Tuesday and Democrats to finish stronger. This happened in 2018, for example.

    But late Tuesday, Arizona Democrats were performing well in the race for U.S. Senate, at least one congressional race, both chambers of the Legislature and in the Maricopa County election.

    The question is whether the final votes will be far more negative, as was the case in 2020 and 2022.

    Kari Lake struggled to keep up

    Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, was comfortably ahead in his Senate race against Republican Kari Lake, although his lead narrowed as the night went on.

    If he holds out, Gallego would succeed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Arizona, and Lake would lose for the second straight statewide in a race that many Republicans viewed as winnable.

    Casting himself as “Trump in heels,” Lake did well in Arizona, at least in early unofficial results. But Lake was running well behind him, which wasn't the case in his previous two runs.

    In 2016, U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, received 107,000 more votes than Trump in Arizona. That was 9% more than Trump. That was largely because McCain ran in Maricopa and Pima counties, the state's population centers.

    Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percentage points, which was remarkably low for a state where Republicans typically won by 10 or more points.

    In 2020, U.S. Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., remained close to Trump's vote total, although both ultimately lost the state.

    McSally ended up receiving 99% of the votes that Trump received. In Maricopa County it was close to his total and nearly identical in Pima County.

    Trump lost the state by 0.3 percentage points in the closest election in the country.

    So far, Lake has received about 92% of the votes that Trump has.

    There were hardly any problems with the vote

    The work isn't done yet, but election administrators had a relatively smooth Election Day across Arizona.

    A printer in Maricopa County ran out of toner. The counting process will certainly take days. In Cochise County, the first results were available late.

    These were the kinds of hiccups that flared up, but none of them suggested that the process was marred by major computer problems or paper shortages or disruptive behavior such as the bomb threats that temporarily prevented voting in some places in Georgia.

    After razor-thin results in 2020 and high-profile, temporary glitches in 2022, Arizona's election administration has been in the national spotlight for years.

    The 2024 results could provide further vindication for election administrators.

    Arizona will remain a battlefield

    Arizona Democrats ended a largely dismal evening nationally with a likely victory in the state's U.S. Senate race and the possibility of winning at least one of the Legislature's two chambers. The races in Maricopa County were also close.

    The results of all of these contests could end up being different, but even if that were to happen, or even partially happen, it is already clear that Arizona remains one of the more politically competitive states in the country.

    That means Arizona's gubernatorial race in 2026, all general elections, the attorney general race and everything else on the ballot will be hotly contested once again.

    Enjoy the end of next year's political advertising, because it won't be long after that.

    Voters supported abortion access and immigration ballot measures

    There were many ballot measures that voters had to go through, but at least two could reflect the spirit of the election for Arizona.

    Proposition 139, a measure enshrining abortion rights in the state Constitution, passed easily late Tuesday.

    Proposition 314, a provision allowing local or state law enforcement to make arrests of immigrants when a Texas law goes into effect, also passed. The Texas law faces a legal challenge.

    In some ways, every measure in Arizona reflects the passion of the political left and right at the moment, and both could be adopted. It suggests that neither side of the political spectrum has trampled on the other in Arizona. Or to put it another way: the voters examined both measures for themselves and decided to pass both measures.

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    Kathleen William
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