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Trump wins the presidential election. What happens now?
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Trump wins the presidential election. What happens now?

The most unusual presidential election of our lifetime is over and Donald Trump has won, NBC News predicts. Now millions of worried Americans have one question on their minds: What's next? Historical precedents, Trump's rhetoric, and the actions we observed during his first term, during which I served as Vice President Mike Pence's national security adviser, offer some clues.

First, we must be concerned about a possible significant increase in political violence. By making not-so-hidden public threats, such as his recent comments about former Rep. Liz Cheney, Trump risks making anyone who opposes him a target. People can apologize and say he didn't mean it, but the reality is that he could have called her a “war hawk” without saying that “nine barrels should be shooting at her.”

The free press could face increasing attempts at intimidation: whether they comply or not.

And if he pardons the January 6 insurrectionists, as he has promised, he would effectively grant immunity to extremists who might commit acts of violence in his name. Who will stop him? Allies like Steve Bannon, Mike Flynn and Stephen Miller? The Supreme Court? The Justice Department? Don't kid yourself.

The media landscape could change dramatically. We've already seen prescient compliance from the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and other media outlets that have refused to support the president this year, and Trump has filed a multibillion-dollar lawsuit against CBS that he has threatened to drop.

At the same time, Trump was building his own media company. In the worst case, this would become an arm of the government, similar to state-sponsored propaganda channels in autocratic countries. There is no guarantee that this will happen, but the free press could face increasing attempts at intimidation: whether they comply or not. And if journalists are restricted, the public will suffer from objective reporting.

Trump has promised mass deportations of immigrants, and further promises of raids and camps are creating a climate of fear and mistrust. Economically, the consequences could be devastating. If millions of workers, including people who are here legally, face deportation, companies will struggle in an already tight labor market. Funding for this massive operation would have to come from somewhere: increased national debt, a national sales tax, cuts to entitlements like Social Security, and the elimination of programs like the Affordable Care Act are all good possibilities. Many of these options could cause the average American to suffer financially. And that's on top of the impact of Trump's proposed tariff plan and Elon Musk's threats to “stimulate the economy.”

As Trump consolidates more power in the executive branch, corporate allies like Musk will flourish, creating an American oligarchy that blurs the line between public service and private profit. For people like me, who are denigrated by Trump as “Deep State,” it probably will be Thousands of jobs are lost. And what if those of us brave enough to stand up and tell the truth about him are prosecuted? Justice will no longer be blind.

The impact of this shift will be felt far beyond our borders, ushering in a more dangerous geopolitical era.

A sudden loss of the experience and institutional memory of our government agencies would also complicate U.S. foreign policy and impact our national security and intelligence capabilities. A simultaneous retreat from global leadership could leave allies abandoned, aggressors emboldened, and Europe's stability at stake. The impact of this shift would ripple far beyond our borders, ushering in a more dangerous geopolitical era.

At home, marginalized communities will likely face new pressures. Women's reproductive rights will come under attack, hard-fought protections for people of color and the LGBTQ+ community may be rolled back, and some of the institutions built to protect these rights will be gutted, leaving vulnerable populations to fend for themselves. I also expect further corruption of the electoral process: more blatant electoral gerrymandering, the elimination of independent redistricting committees, and more loyalists at the helm of state and local election boards.

It's frightening to think about all this – especially because Americans chose it that way. We know everything about Donald Trump: his many serious personal and professional character flaws, his chronically inept and chaotic first term, his nefarious attempts to overturn the last election, and his aggressively autocratic agenda.

Can our democracy survive? It is difficult to maintain hope in such conditions, but we have no alternative. The fight for freedom, justice and truth will continue and we will navigate this uncertain world together. The future is unwritten, but our determination will determine it. The fight is just beginning.

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