It is truly extraordinary that the Democrats convincingly lost a presidential election to one of the most discredited figures in modern American political history – a convicted felon.

And yet the challenges facing the Democratic Party and the obvious mistakes and missteps of the campaign were clear from the day Kamala Harris was named the nominee.

There is little surprising about Donald Trump's victory, other than the obvious shock that such a vulgar and vile candidate – last week he pretended to drop a microphone, just the latest pathetic example in a long line – is not unelectable is.

Here are six obvious reasons why the Democrats were headed for defeat:

Economic pain

There is a huge gap between how the US economy is performing and how the public perceives it.

Under the Biden administration, the economy has improved significantly in key indicators of unemployment, inflation and growth. But Americans feel like they're going at it harder than ever before, in what's being called “vibecession.”

It's not all just perception either. Goods that people buy every week – food and gasoline – are far more expensive than they were before Corona.

To see the full economic picture, one must look back beyond Biden's four years. In recent decades, the gap between the haves and have-nots in America has widened. The middle class has shrunk. Formerly prosperous cities struggled as jobs moved overseas.

Politically, incumbent governments almost always pay the price when voters feel economic pain, and that would have been the case even if Joe Biden or Kamala Harris had been the nominee.

Harris faced an impossible task: trying to subtly share credit for the Biden administration's economic successes in order to minimize the real financial hardship felt by many Americans.

The priorities of the democratic base

While mainstream voters worry about how they'll make ends meet and wonder why life is harder for their children than for their parents, the loudest wing of the Democratic Party is preoccupied with what some consider to be issues Call culture war, including gender-equitable healthcare, #defundthepolice and Gaza.

For Americans who shy away from these progressive causes and believe in traditional Christian values, Trump's message of “Make America Great Again” resonates, even if it is a promise based largely on fantasy.

His promise to impose tariffs on foreign goods, for example, will not result in manufacturing jobs returning to states like Ohio, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. He's also an unlikely pin-up for conservative Christians.

But when Democrats decided to field a liberal candidate from the progressive heartland of San Francisco, some swing voters and Republicans who don't like Trump were likely wary that she would be a Trojan horse for implementing this kind of “woke.” “Agenda they hate and fear.

Harris can say all she wants that she's a gun owner who doesn't take away anyone's guns, but skeptics would never trust her.

The switch from Biden to Harris

Kamala Harris was the accidental Democratic nominee. She was never intended to be a candidate — she inherited the role at the last minute thanks to Joe Biden's muddled performance in the first presidential debate.

Although she was vice president, she was not a well-known figure among the American public, especially compared to Trump.

It was a nearly impossible task for her to gain the trust of the American public in the limited time she had.

Historical and contemporary sexism and racism

Of the 46 residents of the White House, only one was black: Barack Obama. There were no women. Victory for a black woman has always been against all odds.

Misjudgments in the Democratic election campaign

We know that the mood of the American electorate is bad.

Poll after poll shows that Americans think their country is heading in the wrong direction. In many places the mood is bitter, frustrated and angry: exactly the mood that Donald Trump reflects in them. The Harris message of optimism and hope did not fit the times. This was not the time for a repeat of the 2008 Yes We Can campaign.

The Democrats also had a sympathetic ear when it came to the gap between rich and poor and its political significance. Why did Harris constantly campaign with sillionaire celebrities?

At a rally last month, there was a lot of emphasis on supporting Beyoncé. The music megastar's shiny, shiny hair screamed, “I spent more on this color, cut and blow-dry than you make in a month.”

Meanwhile, Trump was out serving fries at a McDonald's drive-thru.

Every time the Obamas appeared with a lecture about what Americans should do or who they should vote for, perhaps it was a reminder to working-class, black and Hispanic Americans that they have loyally voted for Democrats for decades.

Maybe it made them wonder: Have we received enough in return or are our votes being taken for granted?

Load

Voter motivation and turnout

We know that American voters are more polarized than ever before.

New York Times journalist Ezra Klein has written a book called Why We Are Polarized in which he meticulously analyzes this. He points out that 50 years ago people voted according to the principle of positive partisanship: they voted for the party that they liked best, whose values ​​were most consistent with their own, and which offered the policies with which they agreed most agreed.

This has changed in the last few decades.

American voters today are more motivated by negative partisanship: They vote for one party because they really hate the opposing party. You don't have to particularly trust, understand, agree with, or even know your party's offer; They simply have to find it less offensive than the other side's values ​​and beliefs.

Turnout numbers and demographic breakdowns will provide better insights into this in the coming days, but it appears that Trump voters were more motivated than Harris voters.

This is not surprising, as there has never been a more effective or extremely negative campaigner than Trump in American history. He was able to mobilize his base in 2021 to attack the very seat of American democracy, the US Capitol. Of course, he can motivate them to check a box by stoking their hatred of Democrats.

But consider, in contrast, Taylor Swift's endorsement, which was supposed to be a game-changer for Kamala Harris by forcing young women to vote in droves.

Taylor Swift encouraged positive partisanship: She said you should vote for this person because she is the person I support and our best choice. That's not what excites most American voters these days.

Other factors also play a role, particularly the double standards against Trump. Trump can say or do pretty much anything with impunity, behavior that no other candidate in history has been able to get away with. Added to this is the spread of misinformation and its amplification through social media.

Was Trump ever beatable? It's hard to know. But it's clear that Americans are buying what he's selling more than ever.

Given that the United States still has the world's largest military, the world's largest economy, and the world's most influential culture, the rest of us around the globe are also strapped into a second round of the Trump roller coaster.