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Who will win the election? Donald Trump's swing state gains are threatening for Kamala Harris
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Who will win the election? Donald Trump's swing state gains are threatening for Kamala Harris

Donald Trump showed signs of increasing strength on the electoral map late Tuesday night – the former president is expected to win North Carolina, lead in the six other battleground states and do well among the voting blocs that Kamala Harris needs to win the Electoral College.

Those signs became increasingly clear in the Rust Belt's “blue wall” states, where polls are closed but the race remained either too close or too early to decide as of 11:30 p.m. ET.

The Harris campaign had always said that these three states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — were its clearest path to 270 electoral votes. But with Trump ahead in Georgia and the AP officially adding North Carolina to its column, this is practically the only way. And things are looking increasingly bleak for Democrats.

Trump Harris Race Calls
Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a “When We Vote, We Win” campaign event at the Craig Ranch Amphitheater on October 31, 2024 in North Las Vegas, Nevada. At five days…


Ethan Miller and Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Wisconsin

With more than half of the votes counted in blue-leaning Milwaukee County, Harris had 67 percent, ahead of Trump's 31 percent. Biden won Milwaukee with 69.1 percent of the vote in 2020. Harris was also about a point behind Biden in Dane County, home of the University of Wisconsin.

An NBC exit poll found Trump more than doubled his support among Black voters in the state, from 8 percent in 2020 to 21 percent this year.

Michigan

The state that Biden carried by his largest battleground margin four years ago was a warning sign for the vice president. In the Detroit suburbs, she performed worse than Biden in wealthy Oakland County, as well as in the working-class Macomb district, where Trump was 4 points ahead of his 2020 results.

In Ingham County, home to Lansing and Michigan State University, Harris significantly underperformed Biden in 2020. With a third of the votes counted there, Harris was at 51 percent. Biden won Ingham with a commanding 65 percent of the vote.

In Washtenaw County, home to the liberal enclaves of Ann Arbor and the University of Michigan, Biden won in 2020 with 73 percent of the vote. With two-thirds of the vote counted in Washtenaw, Harris was at 66 percent.

Michigan's story – and perhaps the election – was made clear in an NBC exit poll that found Hispanic and Latino voters, who make up 6 percent of the state's electorate, favoring Republicans at 60 percent to 35 percent. Biden won the Michigan Latino vote by 11 points four years ago.

Meanwhile, a CBS exit poll found more bad news for Harris, with typically blue-leaning younger voters (18-29) narrowly favoring Trump.

Pennsylvania

With nearly 75 percent of votes counted, Trump had a 3.5-point lead in a state that remains a must-win for Harris.

In Center County, home of Penn State, Trump was ahead by about 3,000 votes, with 80 percent of voters tabulated. Biden led Happy Valley by about 4,000 votes.

Trump also did 14 points better among Latinos in Pennsylvania than he did four years ago, according to NBC's exit poll.

Virginia

In a state that has gone from red to purple to blue over two decades, the race was neck-and-neck, with Harris maintaining a two-point lead with 80 percent of votes cast.

But there were signs that the former president had been gaining ground in the deep blue suburbs of northern D.C. With 95 percent of the vote, Harris won Loudoun County by about 16 points. Four years ago, Biden had a 25-point lead over Loudoun.

Harris would need to score higher in other highly educated suburban counties like Loudoun across the country if she wanted to win the Electoral College.

Florida

Trump handily won his home state, as expected, although the margins in his favor were even larger than expected. With 90 percent of votes cast, he led by nearly 13 points, marking the former president's strongest performance to date.

But as in Michigan, in Florida the Latino vote was the most telling sign.

In heavily Latino Miami-Dade, Trump led by more than 10 points. Biden won Miami-Dade by seven points last cycle, and Hillary Clinton won by 30 points four years earlier. In Osceola County outside Orlando, home to a predominantly Puerto Rican population, Trump was ahead by about 3,000 votes, with 95 percent of voters tabulated. Biden topped Osceola by 14 points in 2020.

The strong numbers for Trump in Florida come after Democrats have since more or less swept the state as a whole after failing to do so in the last two cycles.

Georgia

As of midnight, the Peach State had not yet been called, and Harris appeared to be outperforming Biden in the Atlanta suburbs. But the rest of the state told a different story, as counties around Macon, Augusta and Savannah shifted to the right starting in 2020. Trump led Georgia by more than two points with 90 percent of the vote.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

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