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Nate Silver abandons his prediction model in the middle of election night
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Nate Silver abandons his prediction model in the middle of election night

Stats guru Nate Silver threw in the towel early on this election night.

Silver, 46, posted an update to his popular Substack just before 10:30 p.m. to announce that he was withdrawing his prediction model, in part because it “doesn't capture the story of this election night well.”

“Something like The New York Times Needle is a much better product,” he admitted.

Before the abrupt decline, Silver's forecast model gave Kamala Harris a 53 percent chance of beating Donald Trump at 9:05 p.m. – a stark contrast The New York Times' election pin that gave Trump an 81 percent chance of returning to the White House for another four years as of 10:30 p.m.

Silver who founded Thirty-five but now runs a Substack, wrote that part of his reasoning for quitting the betting game was that his team of two simply didn't have the resources to keep up with the election results.

Nate Silver talks to NY1's Pat Kiernan on May 18, 2015 in New York.
Nate Silver said he doesn't have the resources to maintain his predictive model in this election.

“We spend a lot of time fixing code that doesn’t work properly — and that distracts from our ability to cover the election for you,” he wrote. “We feel we have taken on a little too much and thank you for your patience.”

Eastern time zone changing states like Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are still a long way from being called, but they appeared to be leaning toward Trump hours after the majority of polls in those states closed. In Michigan, however, it still seemed to be a back-and-forth affair. However, at the time of Silver's shocking announcement, tens of thousands of votes – if not more – still had to be counted in each state.

Election experts said it was unlikely an overall winner would be determined by Tuesday evening because mail-in ballots and Election Day votes — which are arriving even later after bomb threats were announced at dozens of polling places in swing states — could take days to tabulate.

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