Election Day is here and, according to recent polls, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are still in a tough race to overcome the electoral threshold of 270. But which states are swing states for 2024?

Given the data, there are a few likely scenarios in which any candidate can win the Electoral College votes and the presidency.

Assuming the polls accurately reflect the final results in the states, Trump would win in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, winning the election with 287 electoral votes.

SEE ALSO: The final predictions of 538 for the 2024 election

The former president's lead in those states is no more than 2.4 percentage points, well within the margin of error of any major poll, according to 538 data.

If the polls underestimate Harris' lead, she could get exactly 270 votes if she wins an electoral vote in Nebraska, as well as all the votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania if she wins those states.

If the polls underestimate Trump's lead, he could have the advantage by winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina and receiving 268 electoral votes. A win in Pennsylvania would put him over the 270 mark in this scenario.

As of Monday, November 4th, 83 million Americans had already cast their votes in the 2024 election. Millions more will join them on election day.

Early voting data has shown that the majority of early voters are women, a fact that the Harris campaign and Democrats have touted.

However, the data also shows that 41% of early voters are registered Democrats, compared to 39% of registered Republicans. According to the data, during the same period in 2020, 45% of early voters were registered Democrats and 36% were Republicans.