Topline

Bitcoin prices could fluctuate sharply based on the results of the presidential election, analysts at a Wall Street research firm warned on Monday, as former President Donald Trump positions himself as a pro-crypto candidate.

Important facts

Surprising fact

The extremely bullish Bernstein Group maintained its $200,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 regardless of the election outcome, declaring that the “genie is out of the bottle” for the $1.4 trillion digital asset with spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are the latest stimulus that is strengthening the value of the decentralized currency.

Important background

Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, wrote last month that he expects Bitcoin to end this year at $75,000 if Harris wins and $125,000 if Trump wins. Price targets for highly volatile Bitcoin prices are arguably less reliable than similar forecasts for other asset classes such as stocks because Bitcoin prices move according to the market's perception of their future use case and are not based on returns or other more fundamental causes. An avowed Bitcoin skeptic during his tenure in the Oval Office, Trump has secured the support of crypto leaders like billionaires Marc Andreessen, Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss this cycle while familiarizing himself with the industry on the campaign trail Longtime Bitcoin investor JD Vance won as his running mate.

tangent

Over the past few months, Bitcoin prices and Trump's election chances have moved almost in lockstep on blockchain-based election betting platform Polymarket (see chart below). Bitcoin prices hit their seven-month high on the same day Trump's election chances hit a multi-month high and fell over the weekend as Harris' election chances rose in the betting market.

Further reading

ForbesThese pro-crypto billionaires supported Trump or Harris as election day approachedFrom Ty Roush