Will Trump or Harris be on top on Election Day?

Kathleen William November 6, 2024

Part of former President Donald Trump's betting lead over Vice President Kamala Harris returned on Election Day as voters headed to the polls.

Trump was at -175 to Harris' +150 on Tuesday evening at British bookmaker Bet365, an improvement for Trump compared to the -138 to +120 the race was at on Monday morning. Trump was ahead by a margin of -188 to +150 a week ago.

The lead recovered at the other betting shops that USA TODAY surveyed regularly during the campaign.

Questions have been raised about the accuracy of the action, which U.S. bookmakers are legally unable to participate in, as big bettors appear to have influenced the lines on cryptocurrency-based prediction markets.

The Wall Street Journal reported in October that a sharp rise in Trump odds coincided with $30 million in Trump bets from four Polymarket accounts – redi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie. According to Arkham, a company that analyzes blockchain and crypto activity, each account was funded by deposits from the same US crypto exchange called Kraken.

Miguel Morel, founder of Arkham, told the Journal: “There are good reasons to believe that they are the same entity.”

Polymarket confirmed to CNBC that the accounts belonged to a French citizen with “extensive trading experience and a background in financial services.”

The Journal reported that some observers view the bets as part of an influence campaign to create a buzz on social media and create the impression that Trump is ahead. Polymarket said there was no evidence to support this theory.

Here are the betting odds for the 2024 US presidential election.

Presidential Betting Odds Schedule

Presidential betting odds on Election Day

Bet 365

Donald Trump:-175
Kamala Harris: +150

via Covers.com

Bovada

Donald Trump:-165
Kamala Harris: +135

BetOnline

Donald Trump: -150
Kamala Harris: +130

Oddschecker

Donald Trump: -150
Kamala Harris: +160

The election results are in. Sign up for USA TODAY's On Politics newsletter for breaking news and exclusive analysis.

How accurate were the voting rates in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

The most recent surprise came in 2016, when then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign, only to lose.

The other surprise came in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman had odds of defeating Republican Thomas Dewey by eight to one.

(This story has been updated with new information)

Contributor: Joey Garrison

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Will Trump or Harris be on top on Election Day?

Presidential Betting Odds Schedule