“At this point, the Harris campaign must hope for massive voter turnout in Washoe and Clark counties,” she added. “Without a surge in voter turnout that we haven’t seen yet among Democrats in the state this cycle, or a strong swing toward Harris among independent voters, the state appears on the verge of finally falling under Republican control .”

Treyz also noted that “similarly strong signals are coming from North Carolina,” as rural turnout far exceeds turnout in the state’s suburbs and cities, favoring Trump.

Brian McCarthy, chief strategist at Macrolens, noted Tuesday that data shows Republicans cast nearly 200,000 more ballots than Democrats in early voting.

It's unknown whether these registered Republicans will vote for Trump or how Arizona's large group of independents will fare, but the numbers bode well for Trump in a state he lost to President Joe Biden four years ago.