Two teams that are on the edge of their basic expectations for the season meet and are looking for a moralizing Champions League victory: Real Madrid hosts AC Milan at the Bernabeu on Tuesday.

Both teams have struggled at home and abroad so far this season over where they believe a club of their caliber should be based. Real Madrid suffered a stinging El Clasico defeat to La Liga leaders Barcelona in their last game there, but had a chance to bounce back after last weekend's game was postponed due to flooding in Spain.

AC Milan, meanwhile, struggled to secure a 1-0 win over Monza in Serie A at the weekend and sit below the bottom of the Champions League table with just one win in their three games so far.

The Italian team has relied heavily on American star Christian Pulisic, who continues to be in good form and has scored in seven of the club's 14 league and European games so far.

MORE: How to watch Real Madrid vs AC Milan in the Champions League | Predicted lineups, team news

Real Madrid vs AC Milan prediction, odds

• Moneyline Lean: Real Madrid (-225)
• Result prediction: Real Madrid – AC Milan 2-1

Given the huge gap in the moneyline odds in this game, which are leaning towards a struggling Real Madrid, AC Milan has some value here, but it's just difficult to trust the struggling Italian team here.

Carlo Ancelotti is still figuring out how to integrate Kylian Mbappe up front and revitalize his shaky defense, but there is nothing to suggest AC Milan can score a big result away at the Bernabeu, even if Madrid are in poor form of their own.

In truth, there is little benefit to backing Real Madrid at such a deflated value. There are better plays for this game, which we'll discuss below.

Facts about the game Real Madrid against AC Milan

• Date: Tuesday, November 5, 2024
• Kick-off time: 9:00 p.m. local time (3:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 p.m. PT)
• Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain)
• Referee: Slavko Vincic (SLV)
• Last meeting: AC Milan – Real Madrid 2-2 (November 3, 2010 | Champions League)

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

Real Madrid vs AC Milan best bet

• Choose: Christian Pulisic to score or assist
• Opportunities: +220 (FanDuel)

Nobody on the Bernabeu pitch is currently in better form than Christian Pulisic, and yet the betting market has shown him no respect. That's a mouth-watering stat for a player who has scored or assisted a goal in nearly three-quarters of his team's games so far, with 10 goal contributions spread across 13 games.

Pulisic has a significant history in games against Real Madrid. He scored one goal and provided two assists in eight games against the Spanish giants, including goal contributions in both games of the 2021 semi-final that led Chelsea to the eventual European title.

Real Madrid vs AC Milan prop bet

• Choose: AC Milan is always in the lead
• Opportunities: +165 (BetMGM)

• Choose: Any team that comes from behind and wins
• Opportunities: +475 (BetMGM)

Real Madrid will probably get a win in this game, but the hallmark of this season has been chaos. Even with a win, things haven't been going well for Los Blancos recently.

In each of their last three wins, they either came back (against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, 2-0 down at halftime) or gained a lead (Celta Vigo equalized in the 51st minute before Vinicius Jr. won). in the last half hour for Madrid) or the opponent missed an early chance (Villarreal missed a chance in the 17th minute of Madrid's 2-0 win).

While Milan have struggled to create many chances, they have been ice-cold with the ones they do get. They have a positive xGOT-xG difference in Serie A play and have scored four goals at just 2.83 xG in their three Champions League games so far.