So from the low in September to the high in October, the value of Trump shares fluctuated by $4.3 billion. This is likely the minimum loss Trump would suffer if he loses the election, as this swing is based on a DJT floor price of $12.15. If the stock falls to 0, Trump's losses from peak to trough would be $5.7 billion, the value of his shares on October 29th.

Many investors have made “Trump trades” on assets that they believe will perform better or worse if Trump is elected, including buying DJT stock outright or buying options based on future movements in the stock market Share price could pay off. Trump's other businesses include cryptocurrencies, private prisons and gold. But it's hard to imagine that any single investor other than Trump could stake more than $5 billion on the election outcome, which would make Trump the ultimate election whale.

Trump wouldn't lose the $5.7 billion he actually invested in the company. Trump has made little to no financial investment in DJT, but has contributed to its value through his personal brand and the attention he can give to its flagship product, Truth Social. However, other investors put about $1 billion into the company in its early stages and would lose much of their capital if the stock collapses. If DJT does crater, the company could still operate as a non-public company if someone buys it or its owners decide to take it private.

Trump would still suffer massive financial damage if he loses the election and DJT craters emerge. In late October, when DJT was near its peak, Bloomberg estimated Trump's net worth at about $6.6 billion, with most of that coming from his shares in DJT. Without this stake, Trump's net worth could be around $1 billion. That's a lot, of course, but much of his wealth is illiquid, and in the event of a defeat, Trump would face high claims on his assets long into the future.

Trump already faces a $83.3 million judgment against him in the E. Jean case. Carroll defamation case and $454 million in a New York fraud trial. Those payments are on hold as Trump appeals. Trump is still embroiled in three criminal cases that could drag on for years as the bills pile up. Two of those cases involve federal cases that Trump could have dismissed if he had won the White House — but if he loses, he will likely have to keep fighting. The third case is a case in Fulton County, Georgia, which Trump cannot complete even if he is president.

If Trump loses, he would also suffer reputational damage as a 78-year-old two-time presidential loser with no obvious next step. Trump increases his fame, brand power, and fundraising ability by constantly staying in the news and continually delighting his followers. When he fades into the background, everything disappears with him. All in all, it could be the largest financial burden on the outcome of a presidential election ever.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him to X @rickjnewman.

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