At a time when we are all inundated with conflicting polls and statistics, Donald Trump's campaign is unusually confident.

The Kamala-Harris operation also sees reason for optimism, as it has been revealed that late movers are paving their way by more than 10%. But she still presents herself as an outsider. Her “SNL” appearance doesn’t change that; Nor does Trump say that RFK's plan to remove fluoride from water, a major step forward for public health, “sounds OK to me.”

Most media people, public and private, believe Trump will win, even as Trump opponents implore their supporters to run for vice president – like MSNBC's Nicolle Wallace, who criticized her former boss George W. Bush publicly calling for support for Harris.

The climax of the campaign appears to revolve around a gaping gender gap – with Kamala doing far better among women and Trump faring much better among men.

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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are headed for an Election Day photo finish — although morale is clearly far higher in one camp than the other. (AP)

The Trump camp believes that vote-by-mail registration numbers favor Republicans in battleground states that will decide the race. Almost half of the country has already voted.

Take the crucial Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% lead, and that has now shrunk to a 3% lead.

Additionally, only 39% of Democrats who have voted there so far are men, compared to 49% of Republicans.

Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, appearing on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania electorate is much more Republican and much more male than last time.

Harris needs a big turnout in Philadelphia to carry the state, and numerous news reports say she is still struggling to win over some black men.

In Wisconsin, Trump World argues that in-person votes (which tend to favor the former president) outnumber absentee votes (which tend to lean Democratic). Trump's strength lies with male, white and rural voters. So, as in the case of Philly, Harris will have to do very well in Milwaukee and Madison to win the state.

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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell recently told me was a mistake, remains a mystery because it doesn't track party registration. So it could depend on how well Harris does in Detroit.

The Trump camp sees similar advantages in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, where public polls are close but a larger margin would be in favor of a Harris victory. The election is really about the three blue wall states.

Maybe Harris should have chosen Josh Shapiro?

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally on Sunday, November 3, in Lititz, Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign appears confident of a victory as the number of early in-person votes exceeds the number of mail-in ballots – which lean heavily Democratic areas. (AP/Matt Rourke)

In one key state after another, local black leaders are quoted as saying they are concerned about warning signs in their communities:

Politico: “The city of Milwaukee lags the rest of the state by about 7 percent in both mail response rates and overall registered voter turnout. That's a warning sign, even some Democrats say privately, for Harris about how her campaign looks to improve the urban and suburban electorate and defeat Wisconsin's rural counties.”

Capital B, Atlanta: Black voter turnout in Georgia “has dropped from more than 29 percent” on the first day of early voting “to about 25 percent…That's the bad news for Harris…”

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“Elected leaders and political observers say that Democrats seeking a guaranteed victory in statewide elections for offices in Georgia typically need to achieve 30 percent Black turnout.”

Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, black voters had cast 207,000 fewer ballots compared to four years ago — a decline of nearly 40 percent.”

“I'm worried about voter turnout in Detroit. I think this is real,” Jamal Simmons, a former Harris adviser, told ABC.

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after speaking at a service at the Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Detroit. Former Harris representative Jamal Simmons told ABC he was “concerned about voter turnout” in the Motor City. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

A sunnier view is offered by this Politico piece, which says public polls appear to be underestimating Harris' support.

The story says that “shy Trump voters” – who don't want to tell pollsters who they support – are a thing of the past given the aggressive nature of his campaign.

Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters are missing from the polls, particularly Republicans frustrated with their own party: Nikki Haley voters.

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Citing a national poll, Politico says 66% of those who voted for Haley in the primary supported Trump in 2016. Four years ago it was only 59% and this time it is an estimated 45%. “Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has nearly tripled, from just 13 percent supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent indicating an intention to vote for Kamala Harris.”

To that I say: Who the hell knows?

We're now at the point ahead of tomorrow's election where pollsters are analyzing the polls to find out which polls are wrong. And – here comes the cliché – it all depends on voter turnout. If some of Harris' potential supporters stay home even though she has raised a billion dollars, it will ruin her candidacy.

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The scenarios favored by the Trump team are based largely on party registration rather than polls, which have missed the mark in the last two cycles.

That explains why the former president is more confident, even as he asks his advisers whether they really believe he can win.