NEW YORK – When you think of wildfires, states like California and Colorado come to mind, and that makes sense considering that fires are very common in these regions.

New York and New Jersey are certainly not known as wildfire hotspots, but given the prolonged drought that has spread across this region, the threat of wildfires has become a very real concern.

They existed already several forest fires over the last few weeks, and there are currently some active wildfires.

The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for much of the Tri-State region Friday afternoon and evening as strong winds blow over parched ground.

Since the beginning of September, conditions have prevailed throughout the region that are conducive to the development of forest fires. That's when our current drought began to take hold. Less than two inches of rain has fallen in Central Park since September, and even less in parts of southern New Jersey where drought has become severe.

The prolonged drought has caused October 2024 to become the driest month ever recorded in New York, with just 0.01 inches of rain, and also the driest October on record.

We are also on track to have our driest fall ever if there is no rain again by November. This is a contrast to last fall, which was one of the wettest on record.

What is a Red Flag Warning?

Red flag warnings are intended to help fire managers recognize when not to order fires on federal lands such as protected forests. They also help the public recognize when it is unsafe to use fire outdoors, such as in a campsite.

To meet the warning criteria, ground vegetation and the soil itself must have a moisture content of less than 8%, relative humidity must be less than 25%, and wind speeds of more than 15 mph for several hours are forecast. These conditions are exactly what is expected for Friday afternoon and evening.

Gusts could reach speeds of up to 56 km/h on Friday, allowing the fires to spread quickly.

Are wildfires common in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut?

Although wildfires may not be as common in this area of ​​the country as they are in the West, they can and do occur. When they do occur, they are most common in the Pine Barrens of New Jersey as well as the Meadowlands. However, wildfires can occur anywhere in the region where there is extensive vegetation.

Typically, our wildfire season occurs in the months of March and April when soil moisture is low, winds are gusty and evaporation is high. Forest fires are rare in this area in October and November, as cooler temperatures and abundant rain usually prevent fires from starting.

However, temperatures this fall were above average, Halloween was the warmest ever recorded, and there was simply no rain. Due to climate change, all weather and natural patterns have changed, including fire patterns.

Although the red flag warning was only issued for Friday, the threat of wildfires will remain across the region until the pattern switches back to rain. Currently, a pattern change is not likely in the short term.

No measurable rain is expected next week. If this trend continues, the entire region will enter severe or even extreme drought by December.