There is a high chance that a tropical disturbance in the southwest Caribbean Sea, named Invest 97L, will develop into a tropical depression and likely Tropical Storm Rafael this week, according to the National Hurricane Center and FOX 35 meteorologists.

The designation “Invest,” which simply means an area of ​​interest, allows the National Hurricane Center and meteorologists to run computer models to potentially see where the system could go and at what strength when it ultimately forms.

On Sunday morning there were irregular showers and thunderstorms at Invest 97L. However, it is expected to gradually develop and is likely to become a tropical depression over the next few days, the NHC said. It is expected to move further north toward the Gulf of Mexico, passing through Jamaica, Hispaniola and Cuba.

Is Tropical Storm Rafael on its way to Florida?

According to FOX 35 meteorologists, the system could become a weak hurricane as it moves toward Cuba and the Florida Keys, although it's too early to know its exact track.

Most computer models show no possible landfall in central or southern Florida. Instead, they show the potential system remaining west of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico and heading toward the U.S. Gulf Coast – Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana.

It could be a similar track to Hurricane Debby or Hurricane Helene, Garner said.

Again, it is still too early to know exactly where this potential system will move, with what intensity, or whether it will be a tropical storm or hurricane.

“Although Rafael is expected to reach Cuba and possibly the Keys as a minimal hurricane, the cooler Gulf waters characteristic of this time of year, along with stronger wind shear, are expected to weaken it to a tropical storm by the time it reaches our latitude.” “Garner said.

Florida will continue to feel impacts

FOX 35 meteorologist Brooks Garner said although the system will likely remain off the west coast of Florida, there will likely be some impacts in Central Florida.

The schedule is Wednesday and Thursday according to the latest forecasts. Heavy rainfall between 2 and 5 inches is possible, causing ponding or flooding in some areas, as well as a few isolated tornadoes.

“Flooding is the greatest threat to our region, with a moderate level of risk. We expect widespread rainfall between 2 and 6 inches along this trajectory, with higher totals expected north of Interstate 4,” Garner said.

“Many homes in these counties were previously flooded by Milton and are still struggling with saturated ground, increasing the likelihood of flooding in vulnerable areas. A few isolated tornadoes are possible on Wednesday. Additionally, large tree branches already weakened by Milton could come to a standstill.” There were gusts of 35 to 50 miles per hour, posing further dangers.

What we don't know

The system has not yet developed technically. Therefore, we don't yet know what the official course or intensity will be. This is starting to become more and more solid. The FOX 35 team will continue monitoring over the next few days.

When does hurricane season end?

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2024.

We've had 16 named storms so far this year, and if Rafael forms, it would be the 17th named storm of the 2024 season.

Of the 16, there were five tropical storms and ten hurricanes. Three hurricanes made landfall in Florida: Debby, Helene and Milton.

Second unrest near the Greater Antilles

A second disturbance occurs east of Invest 97L near the Greater Antilles. On Sunday it was a few hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas.

There will be disorderly showers and thunderstorms. The probability of development in the next two days is low and it is expected to be absorbed by Invest 97L.

“This system is expected to enter the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late Monday, ending its development chances. Regardless of formation, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the next few days in the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas,” the NHC said.