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Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election
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Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied, with the latest New York Times poll before the election showing Harris ahead in four of the seven states, Trump in one and a tie in two others – although polling averages show that in none of the seven battlegrounds does a candidate lead by more than 2.5 points.

Important facts

Pennsylvania: It couldn't be closer – the candidates are tied at 48% in both a New York Times/Siena poll (margin of error 3.5 points) and a Morning Consult poll, along with three more ties last week, while Harris ahead is 50-48% in a Marist poll and 48-47% in a Washington Post poll, and it is ahead 49-48% in a major Cooperative Election Study poll, although Trump is ahead at 47th in a Wednesday Quinnipiac poll -46% ahead in survey. The FiveThirtyEight poll average puts Trump ahead of Harris by 0.2 points.

Georgia: Harris leads 48% to 47% in the New York Times/Siena poll and Trump leads 50% to 48% in the Morning Consult poll, while Trump leads 48% in Thursday's CNN/SSRS poll up to 47% ahead (margin). Error 4.7) and in the CES survey (2,663 respondents) it increased even more significantly at 51-46%. In the FiveThirtyEight poll average, Trump is ahead by 1.5 points.

Michigan: Harris and Trump are tied at 47% in the New York Times/Siena poll, although Harris is up 49% to 48% in a Morning Consult poll and 51% to 48% in the Marist poll, along with three Other polls found Harris in the lead, while Trump has a rare lead in a Washington Post poll released Thursday that showed him leading 47% to 45% among registered voters and one released Tuesday Emerson poll is ahead 49% to 48% (margin of error 3 points). . Harris is up 0.7 points in Michigan according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Wisconsin: Harris is 49-47% in the New York Times/Siena poll, 50-48% in the Marist poll, 50-47% in the CES poll (1,542 respondents) and 51-45% in the CNN poll. Poll /SSRS poll and 50% to 49% in a Marquette poll, while Trump has a lead of about a point according to Morning Consult (rounded to 48% to 48%), Trump is 49% to 49% in an Emerson poll 48% up. and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is up 0.8 points in the FiveThirtyEight average.

Nevada: The New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 46%, while the Emerson poll released Friday showed Harris leading 48% to 47% (margin of error 3.6 points) and leads 51% to 47% in the CES poll (933 respondents), although Trump leads 48% to 47% in a CNN/SSRS poll released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points). Trump is ahead by 0.7 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Arizona: Trump is ahead 49% to 45% in the New York Times/Siena poll, he is up 51% to 47% in the CES poll (2,066 respondents), and he is up 51% to 47% in a Marist poll released Oct. 24 ahead 50% to 49% (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Morning Consult is tied at 48%-48% and Harris is at 48% -47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.6 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Big number

1 point. That's Harris' lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

tangent

According to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll Thursday, Harris has a 49% to 48% lead among voters in all seven battleground states, a statistical tie — but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning , that there is still a lot of scope for the race for change.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats' fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by less than one point in poll averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Almost tied in new 7th swing state (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Most polls show Trump ahead in crucial swing state (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has narrow lead – but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump has advantage in latest swing state poll (Forbes)

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