Political analyst Nate Cohn explained why polls may be “underestimating” Vice President Kamala Harris' chances in Tuesday's presidential election.

With just three days until Election Day, the race remains tight between Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee.

In an article titled “Can We Trust the Polls?” on Friday, Cohn, the senior political analyst for The New York Times focusing on elections and polls, wrote that polls underestimated Trump in 2016, when he first ran for president, and again in 2020 during his re-election campaign.

He wrote that the polls could be more accurate this time because the COVID-19 pandemic – whose results suggest skewed poll results – is over and pollsters have made major methodological changes.

But he added that many pollsters have changed the way they conduct their polls in hopes of better representing Trump's supporters – a group believed to be unreachable with traditional polls. Cohn called this assumption about the difficulty of reaching Trump's base “entirely probably correct.”

“But if that assumption turns out to be wrong, it is possible that pollsters are overcompensating,” he wrote.

Cohn then questioned the possibility that Harris might be underestimated in the polls because pollsters feared they were underestimating Trump for a third time.

“Perhaps the best reason to believe that the polls may be underestimating Kamala Harris this cycle is simply that many pollsters are — understandably — so worried about underestimating Mr. Trump,” he wrote.

Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns via email Saturday morning seeking comment.

The argument for underestimating Trump…again

Cohn also argued that pollsters were once again underestimating Trump.

“There is no reason to believe that pollsters can reach enough less engaged and less educated voters, and there is every reason to believe that Mr. Trump still stands out among them,” he wrote.

But on the other hand, he added, “If the polls show that Mr. Trump is doing better among disengaged voters, that could indicate that they are finally reaching the voters who have supported Mr. Trump all along.”

What do the surveys show?

According to poll aggregator 538, Harris is ahead of Trump by just over one point (48 percent to 46.8 percent) as of Saturday morning. Nate Silver, a leading pollster who founded 538 but is no longer affiliated with it, also had Harris slightly ahead nationally Friday afternoon (48.5 percent to 47.4 percent).

However, due to America's Electoral College awarding the presidency to a candidate with 270 or more electoral votes, national polls only predict the popular vote based on votes cast across the country. At the same time, national surveys can help anticipate trends in nationwide surveys.

How are the candidates doing in the seven swing states?

Trump and Harris are faring about the same in Pennsylvania. The former president has 47.9 percent of voter support and Harris has 47.7 percent, according to Saturday's 538 numbers. Trump has a slightly larger lead (48.4 percent to 47.8 percent) in Friday's Silver poll averages.

The two are also very close in Nevada, where the former president has a slight lead. Trump has 47.7 percent support, compared to 47.3 percent for Harris in Saturday's 538 poll averages. Trump has silver with 48.3 percent and Harris with 47.7 percent in Nevada (as of Friday).

There is also a neck-and-neck race between the two in Wisconsin and Michigan.

In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by 0.8 points (48.2 to 47.4 percent), according to Saturday's 538 numbers. Silver's numbers from Friday show Harris with the same margin but different percentages (48.6 to 47.8 percent).

In Michigan, Harris has a very small advantage over Trump. On Saturday, 538 said the vice president had 48 percent support to Trump's 47 percent. As of Friday, Harris is also slightly ahead of Trump in silver (48.4 to 47.2 percent).

Trump is doing slightly better than Harris in North Carolina, with Saturday's 538 numbers showing Trump at 48.5 percent and Harris at 47.1 percent. In Friday's Silver numbers, Trump leads Harris in North Carolina by 1.2 points (48.7 to 47.5 percent).

The former president's lead over Harris is growing in Georgia and Arizona.

In Georgia, Trump leads Harris 48.6 percent to 47.1 percent, 538 said Saturday. As of Friday, Trump has silver (49.1 to 47.4 percent) slightly more ahead of the vice president.

According to Saturday's 538 numbers, Trump leads Harris by 2.1 points in Arizona (48.8 percent to 46.7 percent). Meanwhile, Silver's numbers show the former president leading Harris by 2.2 points (49 percent to 46.8 percent) as of Friday.