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A new poll in Iowa shows Trump is no longer leading in a state he carried twice
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A new poll in Iowa shows Trump is no longer leading in a state he carried twice



CNN

Vice President Kamala Harris is at 47% compared to former President Donald Trump's 44% among likely voters in the final Iowa poll before Election Day, according to the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. That margin is within the poll's margin of sampling error of 3.4 points and suggests there is no clear front-runner in the state, which was widely viewed as solid in the GOP column in this year's race.

The results indicate a shift toward Harris compared to the previous Iowa poll in September, which found a narrow lead for Trump. In that poll, 47% of likely voters voted for Trump and 43% voted for Harris.

There have been few other high-quality polls in Iowa so far this cycle to compare these results to. Iowa has had a mixed record in the last four presidential elections: Barack Obama won in both 2008 and 2012, while Trump won in 2016 and again in 2020.

The new poll shows that women in the state overwhelmingly favor Harris over Trump, 56% to 36%, while men support Trump by a smaller margin, 52% to 38%. And independents in the state voted 46% to 39% in favor of Harris; They favored Trump in Iowa polls released earlier this year.

The poll also suggests that older voters are firmly in Harris' camp: 55% of likely voters aged 65 or older support her, 36% support Trump, while likely voters under 35 are roughly evenly split: 46% Harris and 44% Trump.

More than 9 in 10 likely Iowa voters say they have made up their minds in the new poll (91%), with 7% saying they could be persuaded and 2% saying they have not yet chosen a candidate.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll was conducted Oct. 28-31 by Selzer & Co. of 808 potential Iowa voters. The interviews were conducted by telephone. The results among likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 points.

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