close
close

Guiltandivy

Source for News

Can Donald Trump hold on to suburban voters in battleground Wisconsin?
Update Information

Can Donald Trump hold on to suburban voters in battleground Wisconsin?

A woman knocked on the door of the Democratic Party office in the village of Grafton, Wisconsin, seeking refuge, telling the precinct chair that she was the only Democrat in her area and that Kamala Harris supporters were afraid to put up lawn signs.

Deb Dassow, chairwoman of the Ozaukee County Democratic Party, reassured the visitor: “Everyone always says, 'I'm the only one in my neighborhood.' You're not.”

Ozaukee is one of three counties that form a Republican stronghold in the wealthy suburbs of Milwaukee, the state's largest city. Together, Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington are known as the “WOW” counties, where many residents say the political divide is palpable.

All three will almost certainly go for Donald Trump, but the Republican Party's vote share has steadily declined for more than a decade as Democrats have narrowed their margins. The question now is whether Republicans can halt or reverse the decline.

A map of Milwaukee and surrounding Ozaukee, Racine, Washington and Waukesha counties showing party support by precinct in the 2020 presidential election. The map shows the cities of Milwaukee and Racine voting Democratic, while the other counties vote overwhelmingly Republican.

Vice President Kamala Harris has aimed her message at moderate Republican and undecided voters in Wisconsin, particularly women. She appeared twice with former US Congresswoman Liz Cheney, a prominent Republican critic of Trump.

The second time they visited Waukesha County, they brought with them another Never-Trumper, local conservative radio commentator Charlie Sykes, in a direct address to the men.

“We see that the largest number of undecided voters in the county is a bloc of college-educated men,” said Matt Moreno, chairman of the Waukesha County Democratic Party.

Waukesha City Mayor Shawn Reilly endorsed Harris on Wednesday, the first time he has publicly endorsed a Democrat. He resigned from the Republican Party after January 6, 2021. “If Donald Trump becomes our president…” . . “We are striving to become a fascist country,” he said on Friday.

Democratic Chairwoman Deb Dassow sits for a portrait
Democratic Chairwoman Deb Dassow says women are central to the party's ability to close the gap in Ozaukee County © Jim Vondruska/FT
Matt Mareno sits for a portrait
Waukesha Democratic Chairman Matt Mareno says the largest group of undecided voters in the county are men with college degrees © Jim Vondruska/FT

As she prepared for early voting in Menomonee Falls, a village in Waukesha County, Stephanie Smith said it was difficult to decide who to vote for in a divided household where her three daughters opposed Trump. She needed to put some issues that mattered to her on the backburner to focus on the economy, she added.

“I was actually on the fence until the last minute. I flip-flopped 25 times before I made my final decision.” She wouldn't say who she chose.

“The WOW counties are critically important,” said Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler, because they are home to more than 640,000 people and “have gone from red to purple more than any other part of the state.”

“Historically, the WOW counties are the Republican election factory in Wisconsin and the place where the GOP can offset the additional Democratic votes from Madison and Milwaukee (the state capital),” Wikler added.

But now “the number of Democratic votes from WOW districts is exploding.”

When asked who she would vote for, Waukesha County resident Lacritia Spence looked around and mouthed “Kamala.” She said that while Republicans dominate her county, “it's very surprising how many Democrats there actually are in the area.” . It feels good that it’s a little more balanced.”

Interior of the Ozaukee County Democratic Party office
Joe Biden increased the Democratic vote share in Ozaukee County to over 40% in 2020 © Jim Vondruska/FT
Lacritia Spence voted early in Menomonee Falls
Lacritia Spence voted early in Menomonee Falls © Jim Vondruska/FT

In 2016, Hillary Clinton received 33.3 percent, 37 percent and 27.2 percent of the vote in Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties, respectively. In 2020, President Joe Biden's respective shares rose to 38.8 percent, 43.1 percent and 30.3 percent.

Wisconsin is one of seven battleground states that will decide the presidential election, one of the closest in modern history. According to the Financial Times poll tracker, Trump leads Harris in the state by a razor-thin 0.5 percentage points, meaning the candidates are effectively deadlocked. In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by just 20,682 votes.

Both candidates will campaign in Wisconsin on Wednesday, with Trump returning to the state on Friday for a rally in Milwaukee.

According to Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin's gold standard poll, there were a net 36,000 fewer Republican votes in WOW counties from 2012 to 2020. Since the presidential election was so narrowly decided in Wisconsin, “it’s a big loss for the Republicans.” They have to make up for that in the north and west of the state.”

The decline in the Republican majority has prompted party officials to take steps to ensure voters who have been more likely to stay home in recent years turn out to vote.

Alex Leykin, chairman of the Ozaukee County Republican Party, said: “The problem is when you relax and Republicans become complacent and apathetic about what's going on because they just accept the fact that they always win this county become.” . . Suddenly your voice counts.”

Alex Leykin stands for a portrait
Ozaukee Republican Party Chairman Alex Leykin warned of party complacency in the county © Jim Vondruska/FT
The image shows various political merchandise, mainly travel mugs and mugs, supporting Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election
The Republican Party has increased its reach to voters © Jim Vondruska/FT

He said the county party has conducted its first text campaign and increased its door-knocking.

Blake Aker, 32, of Waukesha voted for Trump for the first time in a presidential election. His wife Kiera, who voted for Trump for the third time, said “abortion, the border (and the) economy” were the main factors in the couple's decision – “abortion in the sense that we don't want it.”

Her husband said he decided to vote “since I've officially become an adult, I've actually seen how these things impact my daily life.”

Washington County Republican Party Chairman Randy Marquardt said he is also focused on “infrequent voters.” . . to get that extra margin.” He hoped to increase Republican voter turnout by about two percentage points starting in 2020. “The pressure was great.”

Some content could not be loaded. Check your internet connection or browser settings.

Dassow and Moreno believe their party will continue to gain ground in WOW districts this election cycle, with women at the center of the effort.

Democratic officials and organizers in the region said the U.S. Supreme Court's 2022 decision to strike down the nation's right to abortion galvanized WOW women. It has helped spark an underground movement of Democratic women who gather secretly in homes to prevent other community members — and their husbands — from knowing their affiliation.

Abortion is the number one issue among women in the Milwaukee area, said Kate Duffy, founder of Motherhood for Good, a grassroots organization. Many women who are voting democratically for the first time take part in these meetings.

“I think there's even some conscience that they thought it was just (abortion)” at risk in 2020, but are now seeing “IVF and miscarriage management being compromised.”

The image shows a collection of political campaign buttons for Harris and Walz in a plastic container
Some Democrats have organized privately without publicly declaring their loyalty © Jim Vondruska/FT
The image shows a group of political advertising signs leaning against a wall promoting the 2024 US presidential election
Signs that their margin is shrinking are forcing Republicans to step up their action © Jim Vondruska/FT

Some women don't want to volunteer in public, Dassow said, but instead take part in quieter, unconventional political activities, such as making Taylor Swift-style friendship bracelets expressing support for Harris, and debating about problems as they arise.

College-educated women in Waukesha County “are giving us a chance for the first time, and it’s taken years,” Moreno said.

“Our whole strategy is that we need to start earning people’s ears,” an effort driven by women who are the local party’s main source of volunteers.

“Suburban women can influence the election,” Wikler said.

Video: America divided: the women who voted for Trump | FT film

LEAVE A RESPONSE

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *