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Here's who's ahead in Wisconsin polls for the 2024 presidential election
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Here's who's ahead in Wisconsin polls for the 2024 presidential election

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris is narrowly ahead of former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to three new polls released in recent days, but poll averages show Trump has narrowed Harris' lead in the crucial swing state, making it effectively less than a tie week before election day.

Important facts

In a Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday (margin of error 4.4 points), which includes undecided voters leaning toward one of the candidates, Harris trails likely voters by 50% to 49% – showing Trump the six- Harris' points lead has narrowed significantly, the school's previous poll from October 2 showed.

Harris has a larger lead of 51% to 45% (margin of error 4.8 points) in a CNN/SSRS poll also released Wednesday.

In a Cooperative Election Study poll released this week, part of a nationwide study of universities conducted by YouGov (1,542 respondents), Harris has a 50% to 47% lead over Trump.

Trump has a slim one-point lead (margin of error 3.4) in an Emerson College poll of likely voters released Thursday, while the candidates are neck and neck in two other polls taken last week: a Quinnipiac poll that has them both one had support at 48% and a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows Trump up 48.3% to 48%.

In a Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters released last week, Harris gained three points, 50% to 47% (margin of error 4.6), and a Wall Street Journal poll in early October found her among registered voters is 48%.

Most polls in Wisconsin – whose 10 electoral votes could prove decisive – reflect a razor-thin race, with Harris leading by just 0.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight weighted average.

Voter turnout in Wisconsin could be high in November as the state faces several closely contested U.S. House elections and Republicans wage a tough battle for majority control of the state legislature, said Anthony Chergosky, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse told WUWM Public Radio in Milwaukee.

Dwindling support for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race is also seen as a warning sign for Democrats, as Cook Political Report last week turned the state from a lean Democratic state into a contender after finding her lead ahead Republican Eric Hovde has shrunk by seven points to two since August, although a Marquette Law School poll also released last week showed her still with a seven-point lead.

Biden won Wisconsin by less than a point in 2020, flipping the state after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton there in 2016; Former President Barack Obama won the state by significant margins in both 2008 and 2012.

tangent

Republicans control both the state Assembly and Senate in Wisconsin, and the governor's office is held by Democrat Tony Evers.

Important background

The race between Harris and Trump is effectively a draw, according to polls that show Trump has closed the polling gap after Harris topped him in most polls in the weeks after she replaced Biden at the top of the list in July led most surveys. Wisconsin is among the seven swing states expected to determine the winner of the 2024 election, along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning the three blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is widely seen as Harris' clearest path to 270 electoral votes, assuming she also wins all the other states Biden won in 2020.

Further reading

Swing-state polls for the 2024 election: Trump maintains lead in Arizona, while Harris narrowly leads in Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris and Trump virtually tied in latest polls as race tightens (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads in latest poll (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris surprisingly leads by one point in new poll (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris' Lead (Forbes)

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