It's the pitching, stupid. This idea applies to almost every team, every year, and in every era of baseball. But it's particularly relevant for the Chicago Cubs right now.

Jed Hoyer's front office will explore offers to upgrade at catcher and add more power to the lineup. The Cubs will react to Cody Bellinger's opt-in or opt-out decision, tinker with the bullpen and assess the value of their prospects. There are different ways to go from 83 wins to the 90-plus standard required by manager Craig Counsell.

Adding a clear starter is an obvious step. Part of the calculation is supply and demand. It's more realistic to sign a good pitcher than to land an All-Star catcher or outbid the New York Yankees for Juan Soto. This investment would create different bullpen options and more depth at Triple-A Iowa. It's an insurance policy against the young pitchers who spent most of last season on the injured list and won't be included in next year's Opening Day rotation.

The Cubs are good at this too. You have a type. They know what they're looking for in the upper-middle tier of free agents. Their process over the last two offseasons produced Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga, two consistent pitchers who have been solid additions to the rotation and clubhouse. These acquisitions offer some clues.

“The one thing that stands out right away with both of these guys is just their pitching ability,” Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said on the final day of the season at Wrigley Field. “They both throw a lot of punches. Both limit walks. Both have demonstrated the ability to navigate a lineup, throw multiple pitches for strikes, and do all the little things you want your starter to do. In addition, they are also very similar in personality. They are natural leaders.

“If I were to analyze and evaluate the routines during the season, these two guys would be Nos. 1 and 2 on the list. They both take care of themselves. They are both very conscientious about what they do and how they go about it. They are not afraid to talk to people about how they run their business. There are common themes and common themes there. However, the latter part of this is just two guys wanting to continue to improve.

“Any time you add someone new to your group, the big question is: We know what you can do, but what do you want to continue working on?”

Max Fried would fit this description as a consistent performer at a high level throughout his time with the Atlanta Braves. The same goes for Nathan Eovaldi, assuming he declines his $20 million player option with the Texas Rangers for next season. Both pitchers also have World Series experience.

Max Fried threw two complete games in 2024. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Fried, who turns 31 this winter, played with Dansby Swanson in Atlanta and graduated from the same Southern California high school (Harvard-Westlake) that produced Pete Crow-Armstrong. The left-hander is a three-time Gold Glove winner with a career WHIP of 1.164. He's also coming off an All-Star season (3.25 ERA in 29 starts) with a team that has a proven track record of retaining its own talent.

Eovaldi, who turns 35 next season, would represent more of a short-term signing. Eovaldi has a 9-3 record and a 3.05 ERA in 17 playoff appearances, earning World Series rings with the Rangers and Boston Red Sox. He led the American League in walk rate in 2021 and finished in the top 10 in that category again this year.

If the Cubs hadn't signed Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea or Luis Severino to a prove-it deal last winter, it seems doubtful they would make a deal to buy any of the pitchers who helped get their teams into the National League to catapult championship series. The New York Mets could also extend one-year qualifying offers to Manaea (assuming he opts out of his contract) and Severino, thereby incorporating draft pick compensation into the model the Cubs use to evaluate the cost of potential deals.

If the Cubs believe their pitching infrastructure can do more, include Walker Buehler (who returned in time for the Los Angeles Dodgers' playoff run) and Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber (who underwent Tommy John surgery in April has) among the candidates for re-promotion. The Cubs could see a little more in a swingman like Nick Martinez, who may elect to become a free agent after a 4-WAR season with the Cincinnati Reds (10-7, 3.10 ERA in 142 1/3 innings). .

In his career, Walker Buehler has thrown 4 sweepers with over 2 feet of horizontal break.

And they were ALL last night. 😳 pic.twitter.com/0LebWSEKfu

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 17, 2024

Counsell wouldn't make any promises this far in advance, but Javier Assad's overall performance (3.40 ERA in 294 major league innings) will likely put him in the starting five next season with Imanaga, Taillon and Justin Steele. When healthy, the organization's raw pitching talent — a group that includes Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Jordan Wicks and Cade Horton — can be available out of the bullpen or in case of injury. This leaves a spot free for the next free agent.

Halfway through his four-year, $68 million contract, Taillon had accounted for 57 starts and 319 2/3 innings. Taillon battled the jitters of his first year – his ERA was 6.90 as of early July 2023 – and has posted a 3.38 ERA in 45 games since. When Kyle Hendricks plays his final game in a Cubs uniform, Taillon's knowledge, accessibility and work ethic will be even more important resources.

“Definitely proud of the workload,” Taillon said after his 28th and final start of the year. “I definitely feel more comfortable here. I know my way around the locker room. I know the staff and stadium employees better. I know my way to the ballpark. All of this is important.

“I’ve been the injured one before in my career. Before that I had two Tommy John surgeries and a lot of other things. Being available and being out there is a big deal for me. There were definitely games this year where I maybe didn't feel 100 percent. And I was still proud of being able to go out there and give a good performance. I've made it a goal to try to be healthy in everything I do in my routine.

“This offseason I definitely want to find smart ways to regain some speed. (I'll) come into spring training ready to do my job, but also be a leader and lead by example. And hopefully influence some of the younger players that I know we have coming up.”

That presence will also come from Imanaga, who answered the questions that arose from his decision to leave Japan and compete at the sport's highest level. His four-year, $53 million contract could extend to $80 million over five seasons, which would still be good value for an All-Star pitcher. The Cubs posted a 23-6 record in his starts and a 60-73 record for the rest of their schedule.

“The great thing about Shota is that it’s no different,” Counsell said when asked how Imanaga has changed since spring training. “The brilliant thing about Shota this year is that he actually came here and simplified who he was. That's hard when you come to a new place and think you have to get better. He didn't have to be better. He actually made himself easier.”

That almost sounds like a takeaway for a front office that will be under pressure to field a playoff team next year. Spend more money. Trade some prospects. Reinforce a strong rotation in a stadium that has proven to be very pitcher-friendly this year. Don't think about it too much.

(Top photo by Shota Imanaga: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)