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Betting by the Numbers: Jayden Daniels' amazing 'not great' result for sports betting
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Betting by the Numbers: Jayden Daniels' amazing 'not great' result for sports betting

Bettors never stopped believing in Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, and the odds-defying rookie delivered once again.

As time expired, Daniels connected with Noah Brown on a 52-yard Hail Mary to lead the Commanders to an 18-15 victory over the Chicago Bears on Sunday in a battle of the top two picks in the 2024 draft. The game-winning TD pass, which also covered the spread, was felt by both bettors and bookmakers across the country.

“It wasn’t great for us,” John Murray, general manager of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN.

Daniels was forced out of last week's blowout win over the Carolina Panthers with a first-half rib injury, and his status remained unclear ahead of Sunday's game against the Bears.

The limit grew to Chicago -3, where it remained until Sunday morning before action against the Commanders showed up at sportsbooks. Daniels was eventually listed as active and cleared to play, and Washington finished as the consensus 1-point favorite.

“We took a lot of Commanders money when it turned out Daniels was there at QB,” Murray added. “Bears (winning) by more than three was what we wanted and would have been a great result for us, but Bears by exactly three was fine too. Washington totally, not so much.”

With 15:12 seconds left, the Commanders were 35-1 on DraftKings and won the game. The sportsbook said it took bets on Washington during the final run before the Hail Mary. The Bears were -50,000 favorites just before the game.

Caesars Sportsbook offered the Commanders 22-1 during the final drive and took “a lot” of bets on Washington, said Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading. Caesars also reported that he had placed a $133,000 bet on the Bears at -2.5, a bet that took a difficult turn in the final six seconds.

The Commanders improved to 6-2 and 7-1 against the spread.

Big underdogs continue to thrive

Eight weeks into the season, sports betting predictably went to the spreads. With the San Francisco 49ers covering “Sunday Night Football,” the favorites are now 62-60 ATS, according to ESPN BET odds.

However, even this perfect balance has experienced notable differences. With the Cleveland Browns (+7.5) and New England Patriots (+7.5) picking up wins on Sunday, the underdogs by at least seven points are 9-11 overall this season – their most surprising such wins in Week 8 since 2008, per ESPN Research.

With Monday night's game still to come, here's how things currently stand this season.

Indiana, BYU is improbably still undefeated

College football's true underdogs begin to emerge as October draws to a close, and they'll become increasingly important this season thanks to the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. This year we're looking at the Indiana Hoosiers and BYU Cougars.

Both teams are undefeated, tied in their respective conference standings and 7-1 in the standings. That's the second-best team in the country behind the Marshall Thundering Herd, the only undefeated ATS team in college football, despite their 4-3 record.

Indiana and BYU are very popular with audiences as they continued to rack up wins and covers throughout the year. On ESPN BET this week, both had 77% of the tickets to cover their spreads, which they both did relatively easily.

At BetMGM and DraftKings, the Hoosiers' spread was the largest bet across tickets and handles on Saturday morning, with BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee specifically pointing to Indiana as a popular choice for Saturday's game. BYU was BetMGM's second-highest moneyline in terms of stakes.

Indiana has been the favorite in all eight games this season, the longest such streak since the FBS and FCS split in 1978. The school has covered the last seven games in a row (although ESPN Analytics notes that Indiana is ranked 109th in the schedule).

Conversely, despite its impressive performance, BYU continues to see disrespect from bookmakers. The Cougars finished as 2.5-point underdogs at the UCF Knights, becoming just the second team since 1978 to go 7-0 or better against a team with a losing record as underdogs. With the win, they now become just the second team since 1990 to start 8-0 despite being underdogs in half of their games, according to ESPN Research.

To highlight their dark horse status, neither team was featured on ESPN BET's To Make the Playoff odds board at the start of the season. Indiana debuted at +1000 on September 23rd, while BYU made its debut on October 14th at +475. They were also both high hopes to win their respective conferences, with the Hoosiers starting the season 300-1 and winning the Big Ten. The Cougars starting 150-1 and winning the Big 12.

knick-knacks

0: That's the number of ATS wins this season for the Air Force Falcons. They are the only team that has failed to keep the distance in the first seven games of this season.

-3.5: The Ohio State Buckeyes entered the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions on November 2nd as favorites on the road with a 3.5-point lead. By Sunday evening the line grew to -4. Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar sat out the second half of Saturday's win over the Wisconsin Badgers and wore a knee brace. Joey Feazel, who oversees college football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, said the odds reflect that questionable status.

“It seems clear that no one knows this status as we have not seen any movement on either side of the line,” Feazel told ESPN on Sunday. “I expect the distribution and total numbers to change as we receive more information about Allar.”

+17: The No. 25 Vanderbilt Commodores finished as 17-point home underdogs against the Texas Longhorns on Saturday, making the Commodores the second-largest home underdog as an AP Top 25 team this century. In 2005, the No. 24 Oregon Ducks were 21-point underdogs at home against the top-ranked USC Trojans. The Commodores lost 27-24.

17: That's the number of touchdowns scored by tight ends on National Tight Ends Day, the highest total since the holiday was introduced in 2018. Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens (+225) was the only TE in the top 10 of ESPN BET's “Anytime TD Scorer” ticket attractors and conceded a score in the third quarter of his game.

+410: These are FanDuel's odds on Colorado Buffaloes QB Shedeur Sanders, the current favorite to win the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL Draft. Miami Hurricanes QB Cam Ward has the second best odds at +650.

$14,950.86: That was the payout for a bettor on FanDuel who hit a $50 two-leg combo against Atlanta Falcons' Kyle Pitts and Tampa Bay Buccaneers' TE Cade Otton in the same game.

$260,000: That's how much money was bet on Browns QB Jameis Winston, the third-most picked NFL player in Week 8, according to data provided to ESPN by Pikkit, an app that allows bettors to sync their sports betting accounts and follow game action. Only Ravens RB Derrick Henry and Cleveland TE David Njoku attracted more money from Pikkit users.

$440,000: That was the amount of a bet at Caesars Sportsbook on the Browns +8.5 against the Ravens, the largest reported bet on Sunday at Caesars. Cleveland defeated the Ravens 29-24.

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