Given the multitude of factors that could weigh on job growth, Reid wrote that the unemployment rate “will provide the best measure in the labor market this month.”

Heading into a busy week of economic data, markets are pricing in a 96 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its November meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

With 37% of the S&P 500 reporting quarterly results, the index expects earnings growth of 3.7% year-over-year. That would be the slowest annual growth rate since the second quarter of 2023, according to FactSet.

Big Tech's earnings will test this narrative in the coming week. FactSet recently pointed out that the “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks are expected to grow their earnings by 18.1% this quarter compared to the same quarter last year, while the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post growth of just 0.1% .

After a tech rally late in the week took several Big Tech names back near record highs, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are all expected to report quarterly earnings next week. The reports will bring artificial intelligence into renewed focus. Investors will be watching for clues about how much these companies are spending on the emerging technology and whether it is boosting their profits.

Given the recent surge in Big Tech stocks, Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer of Laffer Tengler Investments, warned Yahoo Finance of possible muted reactions to the earnings releases.

“There is a risk that a name like Microsoft will beat (estimates), which has historically happened with earnings about 76% of the time, and you may not benefit from the stock price,” Tengler said.

Economic data surprised Wall Street positively last month. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, which measures whether economic data is better or worse than expected, rose to its highest level since April.

This coincided with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX), which rose about 50 basis points last month to hover at nearly 4.2%. In some cases, a rise in yields can be a headwind for stocks. But as Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, points out

“A gradual increase (in yields) … for the right reasons, with the expectation of higher growth, has historically tended to be good for these profit boosters,” Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist at BlackRock Americas, told Yahoo Finance. “It is therefore still very important that quality is at the heart of your portfolio.”

Weekly calendar

Monday

Economic data: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, October (-9 expected, -9 expected)

Earnings: Ford (F), Philips (PHG), Waste Management (WM)

Tuesday

Economic data: S&P CoreLogic 20 Cities YoY NSA, August (5.92% previous); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, October (99.0 expected, 98.7 forecast); JOLTS job openings, September (7.9 million expected, 8.04 million expected); Dallas Fed Services Activity, October (-2.6 previous)

Earnings: Alphabet (GOOGL,GOOG), AMD (AMD), BP Oil (BP), Chipotle (CMG), Crocs (CROX), McDonald's (MCD), JetBlue (JBLU), Paypal (PYPL), Pfizer (PFE), Reddit ( RDDT), Royal Caribbean Group (RCL), Snap (SNAP), Sofi (SOFI), Visa (V)

Wednesday

Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, Week Ending October 25 (-6.7% Previous); ADP payrolls for individuals, October (+100,000 expected, +143,000 previous); GDP quarterly annualized, preliminary estimate for the third quarter (3% expected, 3% forecast); Core PCE price index quarter-on-quarter, up in Q3 (+2.8% y/y); Pending home sales month-over-month, September (0.6% ago)

Earnings: ADP (ADP), Caterpillar (CAT), Carvana (CVNA), Coinbase (COIN), Etsy (ETSY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Roku (ROKU), Robinhood (HOOD) , Starbucks (SBUX)

Thursday

Economic data: Core PCE Index MoM, September (+0.2% expected, +0.1% prior); Core PCE Index YoY, September (+2.6% expected, 2.7% prior); Initial jobless claims, week ending October 26 (227,000 previous); Continuing claims, week ending October 19 (1.897 million previous); Employment Cost Index, third quarter (0.9% expected, 0.9% previous); Challenger Job Cuts YoY, October (+52.4% YoY); Personal income, September (+0.4% expected, +0.2% previous); Personal spending, September (+0.4% expected, +0.2% previous); MNI Chicago PMI, October (46.6 before)

Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Conoco Phillips (COP), Estee Lauder (EL), Kellanova (K), Intel (INTC), Mastercard (MA), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCL), Peloton (PTON), Merck (MRK), SiriusXM (SIRI)

Friday

Economic calendar: Non-farm payrolls, October (+125,000 expected, +254,000 previous); Unemployment rate, October (4.1% expected, previously 4.1%); Average hourly wage month-on-month, October (+0.3% expected, +0.4% previous); Average hourly wage year-on-year, October (+4% expected, +4% previous); Average weekly hours worked, October (34.2 expected, 34.2 previous); labor force participation rate (previously 62.7%); S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, October final (47.8 previous); ISM production, October (47.6 expected, 47.2 expected); ISM prices paid, October (48.3 before)

Earnings: Charter Communications (CHTR), Dominion Energy (D), fuboTV (FUBO), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Wayfair (W)

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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