ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – A winter storm warning is in effect for Anchorage and the western Kenai Peninsula as heavy snow is expected Monday night into Tuesday. Further north, the Matanuska Valley is also under a winter weather advisory for moderate snowfall.

UPDATE 4:00 p.m. Sunday

As this storm moves east overnight, light snow will fall across the Southcentral, with up to 1 inch of snow expected in Anchorage, the Mat-Su and the western Kenai Peninsula by early Monday morning.

Snow will continue throughout the afternoon, mixing with rain at times. 1 to 4 inches of additional snow is expected through the afternoon. With temperatures near freezing Monday afternoon, prepare for icy and slushy conditions.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall late Monday into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will drop below freezing again, and another 3 to 6 inches of snow is expected by Tuesday morning.

Anchorage and Kenai should be prepared for 6-12 inches of snow, with 4-8 inches likely in the valley. Snow depth will vary depending on elevation and location where the heaviest layer of snow forms Tuesday afternoon.

This storm contains a significant amount of moisture, creating wet conditions across most of Southcentral. A mix of heavy rain and snow is expected in Homer and Seward, with heavy snow expected in the mountains.

While there is still some uncertainty as to where the heaviest snowfall will fall, models agree well that significant snowfall is expected from Kenai to Anchorage and into the Mat-Su late Monday into Tuesday.

Stay tuned to the Alaska Weather Source team for the latest information on this evolving forecast.

Download the Alaska Weather Source app for the latest weather forecasts, weather alerts and more.

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Thursday, 4 p.m

For the first time this season, several inches of snow is forecast for Anchorage.

The storm is still developing in the far western Pacific but is expected to move east into south-central Alaska by Monday. The current track brings snow to the Anchorage Bowl around midday, lasting through Tuesday.

Temperatures will likely be at or below freezing at this point, and models currently show enough moisture as the storm reaches Anchorage to allow several inches to pass over the city by Tuesday morning. Temperatures are likely to climb above freezing during the day, meaning a wintry mix of snow and rain is possible through the afternoon.

With the storm still forming and several days to go, this forecast could change significantly by then, but preparations should be made now for an icy and snowy ride Monday night into Tuesday night.

Anchorage's first official snowfall this season was on Oct. 10, when 0.4 inches of snow fell, but the city has yet to see more than an inch of snow.

The average first snowfall of an inch or more in Anchorage is October 23. Last year, the city didn't get that much snow until Nov. 11, and in three of the last five seasons, the first snowfall of an inch or more didn't fall until November.

On average, more than five inches of snow falls in October, with more than a foot of snow expected in the following months through February and often March.

Stay tuned to the Alaska Weather Source team for the latest information on this evolving forecast.

Download the Alaska Weather Source app for the latest weather forecasts, weather alerts and more.

iOS: Click here to download now! | Android: Click here to download now!

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