Today we have an extensive slate of college football action on Saturday Week 9 with approximately 50 games to choose from. Let’s explore where smart money is headed using our VSiN CFB betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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BYU (7-0, 11th) is undefeated and narrowly outlasted Oklahoma State 38-35, but couldn't cover itself as a 7.5-point home favorite. On the other hand, UCF (3-4) has lost four straight games, falling just short to Iowa State 38-35, but managed to cover as a road winner by 13.5 points. This line opened with BYU listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and coverage by BYU, which has the far better record and ranking. However, even though 82% of the spread bets were on BYU, we saw that swing completely in UCF's favor, with the Knights going from a 2-point home winner to a 2.5-point home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing a sharp “dog-to-favorite” reversal move at UCF. The Knights are among the most contrarian games of the day, receiving just 18% of the spread bets in a high-stakes, nationally televised late afternoon matchup on ESPN. UCF also receives 45% of the spread dollars, suggesting a strong “low stakes, higher dollars” betting split. UCF has poor value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent and as a buy-low favorite after a four-game losing streak against a sell-high unbeaten underdog. Those looking to chase the sharp UCF move but wary of racking up points in a potentially close game for a key number could instead target the Knights on the money line at -140. UCF receives only 13% of the moneyline bets but 47% of the moneyline dollars, a stark betting discrepancy.

Oregon State (4-3) has lost two straight games and just fell to UNLV 33-25, failing to cover as a 6.5-point home dog. In contrast, California (3-4) has lost four straight games, falling just 24-23 to NC State, losing as a 9.5-point home favorite. That line started with California listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. This opening sentence immediately speaks volumes. Why is California so heavily favored when it is on a losing streak and has a losing record against a team with a winning record? The public says you can score points all day long with Oregon State. However, even though 63% of the spread bets include the state of Oregon, we have actually seen that line move further towards California -9.5 to -10.5. This suggests a strong reversal of the “Fade the Trendy Dog” line in California as the line continues to move in its direction despite being an unpopular play. California receives only 37% of the spread bets but 68% of the spread dollars, a notable, highly contrarian “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split.

Michigan State (4-3) just recovered from a three-game losing streak with a 32-20 upset win over Iowa and won overall as the home team by 6.5 points. Meanwhile, Michigan (4-3) has lost two games in a row and just fell 21-7 to Illinois as a road favorite by 5.5 points. That line started with Michigan listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to accept or give up the points. However, despite this even 50/50 spread bet split, we saw Michigan fall from -5.5 to -3.5. On match day it fell further from +4 to +3.5. In a vacuum, a line should not move at all when the bets are even, as the oddsmakers theoretically have balanced action and there is no need to adjust the number. So based on this line movement, we can conclude that the bigger, sharper bets give Michigan State plus points. Michigan State receives just 50% of the spread bets but 72% of the spread dollars, a clear “lower stakes, higher dollars” split and further evidence that pro money backs the street dog. Michigan State is valuable as a conference dog because the built-in familiarity and rivalry aspect levels the playing field and benefits the team in scoring points. The Spartans also have a corresponding betting value as a dog in a very low game total (39), with the lower number of expected points scored making it more difficult for the favorite to cover.