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Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election
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Here's who's ahead in the key battlegrounds of the 2024 election

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is virtually tied. New polls out Thursday show the contest is even in Georgia, while Trump's slim leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona are just below average error.

Important facts

Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied at 49% (margin of error 3.9) in a Marist poll released Thursday, and Trump leads 49.9% to 48.4% (margin of error 3) and 47% to in a Bloomberg poll Wednesday 43% in Atlanta A Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters who will drop out on Tuesday (margin of error 3.1), while a Washington Post poll released Monday (margin of error 4.5) showed Harris with 51% up to 47% ahead. In the FiveThirtyEight poll average, Trump is ahead by 1.5 points.

North Carolina: Trump is up 50% to 48% in the Marist poll – within the margin of error of 3.6 points – and he is up 50% to 48% in an Emerson College poll released Thursday (also within the margin of error of 3.1 points). Bloomberg's poll showed him leading 49.6% to 48.5% (margin of error 4), and the Washington Post-Schar poll showed him leading 50% to 47% (margin of error 3.9). The FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump with a lead of 1.2 points.

Arizona: Trump leads in the Marist poll 50% to 49% (margin of error 3.7) and in the Washington Post-Schar School poll by three points (49% to 46%) (margin of error 5), Bloomberg reports an effectively balanced Lead of 49.1% to 48.8% for Harris, within the margin of error of three points. Trump is up 1.8 points in the FiveThirtyEight poll average.

Wisconsin: The state is almost as close as it gets, with Trump leading 49% to 48% (margin of error 3.4) in the Emerson poll and 48.3% to 48% (margin of error 4) in the Bloomberg poll ) and the two candidates are at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll on Wednesday (margin of error 2.9), while Harris has a lead of 50% to 47% in the Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4, 6). Harris is up 0.2 points on the FiveThirtyEight average.

Pennsylvania: Trump leads 49% to 48% (margin of error 3.4) in the Emerson poll, while Bloomberg found Harris leading 50% to 48.2% (margin of error 3), and she had one in the Washington Post Lead of 49% to 47%. Schar survey (error rate 4.6). Still, Trump is ahead of Harris by 0.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Michigan: Harris' lead of 49.6% to 46.5% marks the largest lead of any state surveyed by Bloomberg, but is still within the four-point margin of error – and is similar to Harris' lead of 49% to 46% in the Quinnipiac poll (Fault Tolerance). 2.9), after trailing Trump 50-47% earlier this month. Harris is up 0.6 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average in Michigan.

Nevada: Harris is up 48.8% to 48.3% (margin of error 5), according to Bloomberg, but Trump is ahead 47% to 46% (margin of error 4) in an AARP poll released Tuesday, and they are at 48% Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.8) showed Trump up 5 points in a Wall Street Journal poll released Oct. 11, outside the four-point margin of error. Harris leads by 0.1 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Big number

0.2. That's how many points Harris leads Trump in the RealClearPolitics national polling average, while the FiveThirtyEight average shows her leading by 1.7 points.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats' fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by less than one point in poll averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Almost tied in new 7th swing state (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Most polls show Trump ahead in crucial swing state (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has narrow lead – but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump has advantage in latest swing state poll (Forbes)

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