The development of a full-blown La Niña was slow. The slow development has led to an adjustment to the La Niña forecast.

La Niña is a sea surface temperature condition in which the surface water of the equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes cooler than normal. It is the opposite state of seawater to the more well-known warm-water El Niño.

When La Niña persists and is strong during the winter season, the storm track changes, resulting in well-defined weather patterns. What matters here is whether the La Niña is moderate to strong.

Currently, NOAA still says that there is a “neutral state” in the El Niño/La Niña region. This means that there is currently neither El Niño nor La Niña. As the onset of La Niña continues to be delayed, the expected strength of La Niña is also delayed.

Here's the new forecast for how cold the water will get, indicating the strength of La Niña. The latest forecasts suggest that the water will only cool half a degree Celsius below normal. This would be just on the verge of a weak La Niña.

La Niña is now also expected to be short-lived, likely over by late spring next year. There is a chance that La Niña will roll through the winter and spring months.

The forecast above says that La Niña will weaken in late winter and late spring. By late winter, the effects of La Niña storm tracks will disappear. La Niña typically exerts the strongest influence on our storm track in late winter.

With this weaker La Niña, we need to reduce some of the expected heavier than normal precipitation in the Great Lakes. We also need to reduce some of the colder influence on our air.

That would mean the new, slight change to winter would be a little less wet and a little warmer. In other words, a slightly less harsh winter.