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    • Tropical Storm Patty could form next week; NHC is tracking two tropical waves
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    Tropical Storm Patty could form next week; NHC is tracking two tropical waves

    Kathleen William Posted on

    With the National Hurricane Center no longer tracking Tropical Storm Oscar in the Atlantic and no more storms brewing, it may look like the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will end before its official end on November 30.

    Unfortunately, that's likely not the case, as AccuWeather predicts that a system that could potentially become Tropical Storm Patty could be just a week away.

    “We suspect there will be another attempt at a tropical depression or tropical storm brewing in the western Caribbean mid- to late next week,” said Bernie Rayno, chief on-air meteorologist at AccuWeather. “As a result, we have enacted an expanded risk development zone.”

    Here's the latest tropical storm news.

    A system capable of producing Tropical Storm Patty could form next week

    AccuWeather suspects a new system capable of producing a tropical depression or storm could develop by mid- to late next week, based on current conditions in the Caribbean Sea and historical data.

    Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are getting closer to average again, but remain warm overall. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is still experiencing deep-sea heat over prime development areas well above historical averages, according to AccuWeather.

    Warm water temperatures coupled with low wind shear that could otherwise hinder tropical developments could only fuel them.

    AccuWeather warns that another major storm or vortex could form near the western Caribbean, where Hurricanes Helene and Milton originated. However, any possible development would be slow and similar to Hurricane Oscar and Tropical Storm Nadine.

    Would Tropical Storm Patty impact Florida?

    There isn't enough information for meteorologists to say one thing or the other. However, current conditions in the region and historical data can give them a taste of what could happen.

    Tropical storms that form late in the Atlantic hurricane season are trending toward Central America, like Nadine, or moving north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas, according to AccuWeather.

    Determining the path that Tropical Storm Patty could take would require knowing where it originates, how strong it is, and what other non-tropical features in the area would influence its movement.

    The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves

    The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves, one in the central Atlantic and the other in the eastern Caribbean.

    The central Atlantic tropical wave is moving south from 15N at about 44W and moving westward at about 15 knots. The tropical wave is categorized as a monsoon trough.

    Monsoon troughs play a key role in the generation of monsoon rainfall, typically over land. It is a vast area of ​​low pressure typically located along a region known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where winds from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres converge.

    According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, monsoon troughs have a significant impact on tropical cyclone formation in the Pacific, but play a smaller role in the western Caribbean and Atlantic.

    The eastern Caribbean tropical wave is at about 62W. It is moving westward at a speed of 10 to 15 knots and is currently producing showers over the northern Leeward Islands.

    When is Atlantic hurricane season?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Countdown Clock: When does hurricane season end?

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    Kathleen William
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