ANCHORAGE, Alaska (KTUU) – A fairly large low pressure system near Russia is causing weather impacts across the state. Numerous weather warnings are in effect for the state, with coastal flooding for areas to the west. While the impact will not be as significant in Southcentral, some areas of the Susitna Valley could see snow, with heavier snow likely in parts of the interior. The greatest impacts will be felt across much of the state today through Tuesday.

SOUTH CENTRAL:

Even though it's quite quiet across Southcentral this morning, there is already a noticeable change. Clouds moving in through the night accompanied by a warmer air mass will result in highs in the 40s across the Southcentral today. Winds from the southeast will increase in many locations throughout today, with winds exceeding 30 miles per hour. A few isolated gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible, but in most locations they will remain in the 15 to 30 mph range. These winds will cause our temperatures to rise quickly later today, with many areas warming well into the 40s.

This increase in warmer air will result in rain being the predominant precipitation type across the region, outside of Valdez/Thompson Pass, areas of the Copper River Basin and the Susitna Valley.

A Advice on winter weather comes into force for parts of Susitna from 10 a.m. this morning to 1 a.m. Tuesday morning. Mixed precipitation is expected, with snow likely accumulating along and north of Talkeetna. Areas north of Talkeetna could see 6 to 10 inches of snow, while areas near and surrounding Talkeetna could see 1 to 3 inches of snow, with 0.10 inches of ice accumulation. A trail of ice is possible as far south as Willow.

It's possible that if cold air persists in some parts of the valley, we could see areas of wintry mix as far south as Wasilla and Palmer. While that seems unlikely, there's still a slim chance we could see a mix this evening.

Since the rain and snow will stop until Tuesday, much calmer weather can be expected until the middle of the week. Temperatures will be the next big issue this week as highs will fall back near freezing by the weekend and lows will fall back into the 10s and 20s overnight.

SOUTHEAST:

The flood warning for the glacier-dammed lake's eruption has been lifted as Mendenhall River water levels fall and the suicide basin stabilizes. Although the greatest threat of flooding has passed, there are still some areas near the Mendenhall River that experienced flooding throughout the night. As of 8am this morning, river levels continue to fall below the action level.

Juneau woke up to a record low this morning, with many locations across the Southeast seeing temperatures topping 20°C. We'll enjoy lots of sunshine today, with rain and snow expected again as we greet your Tuesday. Rain will continue beyond Tuesday, with daytime highs remaining in the 40s and overnight lows near or just above freezing in many areas.

INNER:

The impacts of this large storm will be felt across the state, with strong southerly winds blowing across the Alaska Range later today. The increasing chance of snowfall will result in significant snowfall in some areas over the next few days, with up to 30cm of snowfall expected in some of the hardest hit areas in the Middle Tanana Valley. Here's a breakdown of all the weather warnings for the interior.

• A Wind advice remains in effect until midnight tonight for the Eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp. Gusty winds of up to 55 miles per hour are expected, which may blow around unsecured properties and cause some power outages.
• A Winter storm warning applies until 4 p.m. Tuesday for the southern slopes of the Central Brooks Range. These include Coldfoot and Wiseman. Travel will be very difficult in these areas as 10 to 18 inches of snowfall is likely. Wind gusts of up to 40 miles per hour may also occur, causing blowing snow and reduced visibility. Peak snowfall amounts will be above 3,000 feet.
• A Winter storm warning applies to the upper Kobuk Valleys until Tuesday at 4 p.m. Travel will be very difficult, if not impossible. 6 to 12 inches of snow is expected, with wind gusts up to 35 mph. Rain mixes in at times, creating wet and dense snow. There's also a chance we could see up to 0.10 inches of freezing rain. The most likely time frame for this will be this morning through early afternoon.
• A Winter storm warning applies to the White Mountains, the highlands south of the Yukon River, the Upper Chena River Valley and the Chatanika River Valley. This warning is in effect until 4 p.m. Tuesday, with 20 to 38 centimeters of snow possible. There may be heavy blowing snow and heavy snowfall along the highway crests with severely limited visibility. There is a possibility that we could see a layer of ice with wind gusts of up to 80 km/h at higher elevations.
• A Winter storm warning applies to Eielson Air Force Base, Salcha, Goldstream Valley, Nenana Hills, Two Rivers, Nenana and Fairbanks until Tuesday at 4 p.m. Heavy snowfall will mix with freezing rain at times today, with 10 to 25 centimeters of snow possible. A layer of ice and wind speeds of up to 56 km/h are also likely. Precipitation will transition to a wintry mix this morning and then eventually rain, with a change back to snow expected this evening.
• A Winter storm warning effective for the Southern Denali District from 4:00 p.m. this afternoon until 10:00 a.m. Tuesday. Heavy snowfall of 20 to 35 cm and wind gusts of up to 80 km/h are expected. Be prepared for snowdrifts that could significantly reduce visibility.
• A Advice on winter weather for the Eastern Alaska Range south of Trims Camp is effective from 4:00 p.m. this afternoon until 10:00 a.m. Tuesday. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches and winds up to 30 mph are expected.
• A Advice on winter weather for the Northern Denali Borough is from 4:00 p.m. this afternoon to 10:00 a.m. Tuesday. 4 to 10 inches of snow is expected with gusts up to 40 mph.
• A Advice on winter weather in effect for Delta Junction until 7 a.m. Tuesday, with 2 to 4 inches of snow and a light layer of ice.

Please slow down and be careful when traveling.

SLOPE/WEST ALASKA:

A front is pushing east across Western Alaska this morning, bringing strong winds to the region. While winds will not be as strong on the slope, we will still see gusty winds throughout the day. Some of the strongest winds will be west of Wainwright, where gusts of up to 75 mph are possible.

Rainfall will be difficult at times in the hillside areas as temperatures remain above freezing this morning. Light rain has already been reported in Utqiagvik and there is a chance of rain and snow mixing for a short period on the Arctic coast today. The Brooks Range will experience heavy snow, with up to 2 feet of snow possible in areas of the Western Brooks Range. Further east through the Central Brooks Range we can expect 8 to 14 inches of snow with strong winds. These winds may cause visibility to drop to less than half a mile at times. In addition to the winter weather threat, coastal flooding and heavy surf warnings are in effect along the slope to east of the central and eastern Beaufort Sea coast. Water levels may be 2 to 3 feet above normal tide.

Some of the biggest impacts will be felt today in Western Alaska. A coastal flood warning remains in effect for all of Western Alaska, where the highest water level could be 4 to 8 feet above high tide. Combined with strong winds, flooding may also occur along the Kuskokwim River. As in August, strong southwesterly winds could dam the river. Be prepared for flooding in low lying areas of the Kuskokwim River near Napakiak. There will be nowhere near the floods in August.

Strong south to southwest winds will affect areas to the west, with the strongest winds occurring along and north of the Seward Peninsula. Wind gusts of up to 120 km/h can prevail here. Further south we will still see gusty winds, although wind speeds will likely be in the 30 to 50 mph range.

While the rain will primarily impact coastal regions of Western Alaska, there will be snow inland areas. The heaviest snow will fall in the Noatak Valley and Western Brooks Range, where 12 to 28 inches of snow is possible. Some of the largest gatherings will occur in the Noatak Valley.

Aleutian Islands:

A front will move across the central and eastern Aleutian Islands today, with the primary impact being gusty winds. Gusts of 20 to 50 miles per hour are possible through the Aleutian Islands, with isolated higher gusts expected. There will be heavy rain for the Aleutian Islands during the day. Another low is expected to form in Bering later this week, which could bring another round of wind and light rain. Depending on how strong this system is, it could reach as far as the Aleutian Islands in colder conditions if strong northerly winds pick up.

OUTLOOK:

As this strong storm moves to our east later this week, another low will form. This low will be a key driver of colder conditions in the state. With several rotating waves of energy around this low, we could see some areas of light snow or wintry mix for parts of Southcentral before the end of the week. Although the overall picture remains drier, we will be watching every day this week. Highs will fall near freezing by the end of the week, while lows will return to the 10s and 20s overnight.

I wish you a safe and wonderful week!

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