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Snowier National Weather Service winter outlook for Boise updated
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Snowier National Weather Service winter outlook for Boise updated

It's a bit ironic that so many of us are quick to say, “Don't you like the weather?” Wait five minutes, it will change,” and yet when a new winter outlook is released, you can’t wait to see what it says!

And believe us, there are MANY different winter views. There are two different Farmer's Almanacs and both predict something for Boise. The Old Farmer's Almanac suggests we will see average or above average snowfall, with the snowiest periods occurring in mid-November, early January, late January and mid-March. The other one Farmer's Almanac believes we will be “chilly” and “wet” in February when we dump a foot of snow on Idaho.

READ MORE: 15 signs Idaho could be in for a very harsh, snowy winter

Some people swear by their forecasts, even though they are made 16 to 18 months in advance and use a forecast formula so secret that they have changed the name of their weather forecaster to protect it. In reality? Snowplow news says both almanacs are about 24-25% accurate.

Long-term predictions from real meteorologists? At 50% they are slightly more accurate. The benefits also include that long-term forecasts made more than 10 days in advance are more likely to be wrong. That's why agencies like the National Weather Service update their long-range forecasts every few months.

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They just did this for the December-January-February Winter Outlook and WOW, things have changed for Boise since then published a month ago!

Boise could face “colder” than normal conditions in 2024-2025

The blue band covering parts of the Pacific Northwest tilted deeper south with the new forecast. While Ada and Canyon County were not included the first time, all of Canyon County and most of Ada County are now firmly in the light blue band.

The color represents a 33-40% chance of temperatures falling below normal. Historical data shows that these temperatures are “normal” for December and February.

Will Boise face Snowpocalypse 2.0 this winter?

The winter outlook does not include actual snow total forecasts, but like the temperature map, the green band has dipped much further south into Idaho than the last forecast. In fact, it now covers most of the state. Both Ada County and Canyon County will be completely swallowed up by the bright green color, giving a 33-40% chance of higher than normal precipitation. More humidity + colder than normal temperatures? This could be a perfect recipe for heavier snowfall than we've seen in a long time.

For reference, these are the normal and record snow amounts for the Boise region.

As we mentioned earlier, it is quite difficult to trust long-term forecasts beyond 10 days. The National Weather Service will likely update this again before December. But if you were unsettled by the lack of snow in the last forecast for now, this should be your day!

READ MORE: 15 signs Idaho could be in for a harsh, unforgiving winter

According to the Farmer's Almanac, these are signs that Boise could face a harsh winter, most of which are not due to the weather. Have you noticed any of these?

10 extreme winter weather records Boise could break in 2023

For many of us, Snowmageddon 2016-2017 is a not-so-distant memory. Some people really miss seeing so much white stuff in Boise. Others fear the possibility that it could happen again. How common does it occur? We looked at some historical weather data from the National Weather Service to see how extreme it was compared to some other winter extremes Boise has experienced.

Gallery photo credit: Michelle Heart

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