According to a new poll released Thursday, Congresswoman Michelle Steel (R-CA) regained the lead over Attorney Derek Tran (D) in the 45th Congressional District of Los Angeles County/Orange County, rebounding after last losing in the Polls were two months behind.

Since retaking the district from blue wave Congressman Harley Rouda in 2020, Democrats have targeted the district as one of the most wanted districts not only in the state, but in the country. In 2022, she managed to defeat Democratic challenger Jay Chen with just over 52% of the vote, surpassing her 51% victory against Rouda in 2020. And earlier this year, it looked like Steel would increase that number even further when she received nearly 55% of the vote in the March primary.

But over the summer the polls quickly turned around. While Steel was up in polls in May, it was tied 47%-47% in July. Aided by the District's targeting of Asian communities and the goodwill of Vice President Kamala Harris, who was on the ballot, Tran was soon ahead, leading by two points in September.

However, Steel fought back. Last month, as Steel and other sitting congressmen became increasingly on the move, she was back at the 45th, focusing on the key Asian areas Tran had targeted. And while Democrats have tried to stay ahead by denouncing Steel's voting record, Tran has plunged from one scandal to another. These included lies about his ability to speak Vietnamese fluently, false claims about his military career, and then the biggest obstacle yet, his legal career – such as representing a rapist for profit and defending someone who had planted a noose in his office .

Trend reversal in steel

Meanwhile, the Harris surge faded, and an unexpected wave of Latino voters backed Steel in another critical demonstration. Efforts to increase the number of registered GOP voters in Orange County also helped further expand their base, leading the Cook Political Report to again list the race as a failure. This led to the new American Viewpoint poll on Thursday showing a drastic turnaround for Steel over the past month. The poll now shows Steel leading Tran 45-41%, with 8% undecided. The poll also proved that the scandals are the main reason Tran fell in the polls, as the positive-to-negative ratio for Steel is 42 percent to 36 percent, compared to 33 percent to 27 percent for Tran. That's in addition to Steel maintaining that lead despite Trump trailing Harris by four points in the district.

“Most races, fortunately, see a shift of a few points within a month, particularly in September and October,” Heath Becker, a New York-based political analyst who focuses on swing districts, told the Globe on Thursday . “But Steel improved by six points. And even if the poll was off by half, that's still a three point lead and she's still back at the top. Whenever there is a poll supported by a party, Republican or Democrat, there will always be a pinch of salt. But here the numbers speak for themselves.

“The Democrats really wanted to take this seat away from the GOP this year. In fact, there are so many close House races in California this year, and right now the Democrats could win by 5 points while the Republicans are up by about 2 points. That's a whole range. And Steel's district, which has been firmly in Lean Category D for the past few months. But like you said, it's a mistake now. In fact, some publications criticize her because Tran shot himself in the foot, reloaded, and then shot again.

“Never discount an incumbent workhorse. Tran made that mistake with Steel after he got more comfortable.”