Kirby Smart sounded like a coach who was managing expectations but telling the truth about the new reality in the expanded College Football Playoff.

“They’re playing the long game,” Smart said. “The long game is: Who can be the best team at the end of the year? They’re trying to be one of the top 12 teams.”

Spoken like a coach of a Georgia team that has already suffered one loss and could suffer a second on Saturday at Texas, but is still not out of contention for a playoff spot.

Two of the biggest games of the SEC regular season take place on Saturday, pitting playoff contenders against playoff contenders: Georgia vs. Texas and Alabama vs. Tennessee. But three other playoff contenders are in action, two of them favored by one possession, and defeats would severely dent their hopes.

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It may be a momentous weekend, but how momentous will it be? Much of this may still be beyond the SEC's control.

It's about how other teams perform as well as your own. So before we dive into the significance of this week's SEC games, let's work backwards and quickly assess the rest of the situation.

Jalen Milroe and the Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Knoxville on Saturday to face Tennessee in a top-10 showdown. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The view somewhere else

• One of the 12 spots automatically goes to a non-power conference team. So that means four championship spots and seven overall spots will most likely go to the four power conferences. (Technically, the four power conference champions don't have guaranteed bids, but that's exactly what's likely to happen.)

• The Big Ten looks good at the moment for at least three bids: Oregon (6-0), Ohio State (5-1) and Penn State (6-0), with Indiana (6-0) and Illinois (5-1) as wild cards. Will the latter two fall behind or will they push for a fourth offer?

• The ACC would likely pick two players right now: Miami (6-0) and Clemson (5-1), with Pittsburgh (6-0) and SMU (5-1) the wild cards if they move forward. Getting two bids seems like a solid bet for the ACC, but that could change.

• The Big 12 currently only has one team that would play: Iowa State (6-0). But BYU (6-0) and Kansas State (5-1) are ranked. This looks like a two-bid league at best, with only one as an option. (But three commandments are not off the table.)

• Finally, the biggest wildcard: Notre Dame (5-1). If it wins it will almost certainly make it, but if it loses again it will be on the bubble because of its home loss to Northern Illinois. Arguably the biggest road game for the SEC this week is Notre Dame at Georgia Tech.

Best case scenario for the SEC: Let's say Notre Dame falls out of the picture, the Big Ten only gets three teams, the ACC only gets two and the Big 12 only gets one, counting the automatic bids for the champions. Along with the Group of 5 champion, that leaves the SEC with five bids, including its champion.

Worst case scenario for the SEC: Notre Dame gets in and another team from the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 receives a bid, leaving the SEC with just three bids. Could it be worse? Technically yes, but who realistically believes the SEC will only receive two offers? Three is the realistic worst case value, five is the best case, but that's probably a reach.

Four seems most likely, but that's not a vacuum: It could come down to whether the SEC's fourth-best team (or even the third-best or fifth-best) has a better resume than the Big Ten's fourth-best team, the ACC's third-best team, or Notre Dame .

So what about the SEC teams heading into the weekend?

The SEC picture (in order of current AP rankings)

1. Texas (6-0): A win over Georgia essentially punches the Longhorns' ticket, with only one game remaining against a ranked team: at Texas A&M in the regular-season finale. But trips to Vanderbilt and Arkansas could be difficult, and while a loss Saturday would still leave the Longhorns in defeat, it would make things a lot less certain.

2. Georgia (5-1): A win on Saturday would almost seal the Bulldogs' ticket. They already have a win over Clemson, which even with a loss to Ole Miss and Tennessee could be enough to keep them in contention. But 9-3 leaves too much room for questions, so a loss at Texas means the Bulldogs may have to top the standings or at least get a share of the Ole Miss-Tennessee games.

3. Alabama (5-1): A win at Tennessee leaves plenty of room for error, but a loss means you either have to top the standings – Missouri at home, at LSU, at Oklahoma, Auburn at home – or go 3-1 and hope the rest the field has problems.

4. LSU (5-1): The Tigers have pulled themselves back into CFP consideration, but their game on Saturday has sneaky significance. Arkansas could deal a serious blow to LSU's hopes, forcing them to win starting the following two weeks (at Texas A&M, home against Alabama). But even with a win, LSU is an interesting test case. The schedule isn't great, and the loss to USC looks even worse. Would wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M or Alabama be enough to post a 10-2 record?

5. Tennessee (5-1): Here the situation seems clear. If the Volunteers lose on Saturday, they have to win, including their game at Georgia since they have no ranked wins. But one win could be just enough to get into the game even without a win against Georgia. Still, the Vols are closer to LSU's situation since NC State struggled so badly and took the steam out of this non-conference win.

6. Texas A&M (5-1): If the Aggies can survive their trap game at Mississippi State on Saturday, they will take on LSU at home and also take on Texas at home to end the regular season. The Aggies could potentially afford to split those games if they also avoid losses at South Carolina and Auburn. Oddly enough, the Aggies may be the only team in the SEC that supports Notre Dame – so their season-opening home loss to the Irish doesn't look so bad – and they won't win a head-to-head matchup there.

7. Ole Miss (5-2): Lane Kiffin's team is off this week, reflecting on having lost two of its last three games and confident that it must win, especially when it hosts Georgia on November 9th. Even then, the rebels might need some help.

8. Missouri (5-1): The Tigers are slight home favorites against Auburn, and a loss could sink them. Otherwise, it all probably comes down to next week when Missouri plays at Alabama. This represents the team's only potential ranked win at the moment, so going 10-2 and losing in Tuscaloosa likely wouldn't be enough.

9. Vanderbilt (4-2): Are we doing that? Yes why not? The Commodores were just one spot outside of the AP Top 25 this week and could get in next week if they beat Ball State on Saturday. Then it's three ranked teams in five weeks to finish the season, starting with Texas, which goes to Nashville. Hardly anyone expects Clark Lea's team to do that, and getting to 7-5 might even be a challenge.

But it's the middle of the season and you can't say Vanderbilt isn't out yet. Let's enjoy the ride.

(Top photos of Quinn Ewers (left) and Carson Beck: Alex Slitz, Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)