Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) middleweight finalists Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira will compete TONIGHT (Sat., Oct. 19, 2024) at UFC Vegas 99 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

While it's undeniably a great clash of styles that's sure to be a lot of fun, I have to admit that I kind of hate this fight. Both men have fought for promotions in competitions and targeted the old guard. To pit them against each other and force one into the losing column when they would have an advantage over many who are above them is unfortunate!

The “Fluffy” game plan is no secret. Hernandez has won five straight by drowning his opponents with speed, pressure and endless takedown chains. Conversely, Pereira is killing people everywhere at 185 pounds, as the hulking Brazilian has won his last three fights in a total of three minutes.

My complaint aside, that's how it will be Impressive. Let's take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Hernandez vs Pereira betting odds

• Anthony Hernandez win: -135
• Anthony Hernandez via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
• Anthony Hernandez via submission: +165
• Anthony Hernandez by decision: +650
• Victory by Michel Pereira: +114
• Michel Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: +165
• Michel Pereira on submission: +800
• Michel Pereira on decision: +1200
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Hernandez wins

Hernandez is an absolute grinder who has put together a truly beautiful game where each of his skills flows into the next. He boxes well under pressure with good head movement, wins the clinch with nasty knees and elbows, and then engages in relentless chain fighting. Once he's on the ground, he can control the head and forward position pretty well, and if his opponent can get back up, he's more than happy to repeat the process.

The danger for “Fluffy” lies in the opening round. Pereira is explosive and very experienced at forcing early finishes, which is why Hernandez lost two of his previous UFC fights. There is an athletic gap, and Hernandez has to consider how strong Pereira has become at 185 pounds.

Fortunately, the solution and his usual game plan go hand in hand, and he has just had to deal with a similar task – a very dangerous long-range striker – in Roman Kopylov. No one punches nearly as hard after their arms are covered in blood from clinch work, and no one can kick well after being forced to expend all their energy in a sprawl.

The first objective is to restrain Pereira and drain all the chaotic energy from him. Once a little less fire comes his way, “Fluffy” can safely handle Pereira like everyone else.

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How Pereira wins

Does “Demolidor” target specific opponents each game? It seems like there's a rather shallow approach to the fighting game: be gigantic, hit really fast, and somersault…sometimes not even in that order!

Perhaps Pereira's insane energy can be directed toward a goal, however. We've seen Hernandez hurt his body in previous fights, and Pereira has an excellent front snapkick. What better way to relieve a wrestler's pressure than pressing their internal organs against each other?

Just a little space could give Pereira huge landing opportunities. If he can start throwing linear punches like the front kick, body jab, or right hand to the chest, he can push Hernandez away with punches and start to get clues on his defense. Historically, it doesn't take long for Pereira to score a huge goal from distance. Therefore, an early focus on stopping Hernandez's advance with punches could pay off in a quick stop.

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Hernandez vs Pereira prediction

One of these men will make the other look silly.

That's how these fights work. Usually you can tell the winner halfway through the first fight…if it lasts that long. Pereira is so explosive and deadly that he cannot be ruled out immediately, especially since in addition to his athleticism he is also the much better striker. Conversely, we once saw Pereira get floored by one hell of a short-term featherweight, Tristan Connelly. That's an old loss and Pereira has improved since then, but you're not going to convince me that “Fluffy” doesn't have a massive grappling advantage here.

Ultimately, I think all Hernandez needs is a single takedown to trap Pereira in his cycle of misery, and then Pereira's knockout chances decrease. It's much easier to land a takedown than an outright knockout, and “Fluffy” is tenacious enough to survive a big punch or two while doing so, as long as his lights stay on.

Prediction: Hernandez via assist