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Yankees survive Battle of the Bullpens in ALCS Game 4, one win away from the World Series
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Yankees survive Battle of the Bullpens in ALCS Game 4, one win away from the World Series

It might be time for the Cleveland Guardians to trim their scouting report on New York Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle, whose scoreless ninth inning on Friday featured 22 consecutive changes. This after a scoreless 1 2/3 innings on Thursday that included 18 straight changes.

“Normally I can’t change 44 times in a row,” says Kahnle. “I have to change the approach somehow. Normally I can't just do one change at a time, but if we tend to get away with it, we can't deviate from it. But I would definitely like to add more fastballs.”

He's gotten away with it so far: Kahnle secured an 8-6 victory in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series that pushed the Yankees out of the World Series by 27 outs. Making that calculation in Saturday's Game 5 – the third straight game without a day of rest – could present manager Aaron Boone's toughest challenge yet. It had sent him into fits on Friday.

When top setup man Clay Holmes faltered in the seventh inning – his second collapse in two nights – Boone walked righty Mark Leiter Jr., whom he had just added to the roster that afternoon.

“We still had a long way to go to the finish line and, to be honest, I wasn’t quite sure how we were going to get there,” Boone said.

Starter Luis Gil, pitching for the first time since Sept. 28, helped by striking out 79 pitches in four innings and leaving the game with a 3-2 lead. That left 15 outs and not quite enough pitchers to get them. The bullpen, which didn't allow a run in the American League Division Series, is starting to show signs of wear, starting with seven runs allowed in the first three games, five in Game 3.

Closer Luke Weaver, top lefty Tim Hill and Holmes had each pitched in all three games of the series, and Weaver had thrown 62 pitches – just three fewer than Guardians Game 1 starter Alex Cobb. Therefore, Weaver was unavailable and the others were limited.

But not just because they had pitched so often – but also who they were dealing with. Many fans are now familiar with the third-time-through-the-order effect, in which hitters who face a starter in the last five postseasons increase their weighted on-base average by .310 the first time they face him, according to one study seen by The Score, at .315 the second time to .323 the third time. That's why so many managers pull starting pitchers after 18 batters in October. At that point, they turn to their bullpen – where the effect is even more noticeable. The first time hitters see relievers, they manage a .298 wOBA; the second time .300; the third time, .321. (The fifth time, that number is .450—making hitters better on average than Shohei Ohtani.)

Some relievers try to mitigate the impact by mixing up their sequence from one call to the next, holding back a particular pitch in a situation in the first game, only to break it out in the second or third game. Kahnle prefers the opposite approach: “I just try to get three outs as quickly as possible,” he says.

Weaver has now seen the three most dangerous Guardians three times each: José Ramírez, Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas. After Game 4, Kahnle also saw three Guardians each three times and another twice; Hill has seen two of them three times and two others twice; Holmes saw three each twice.

“The more you see a pitcher, the more comfortable you feel,” says Kahnle. He admits that fatigue is also a factor, but adds: “The adrenaline levels kick in enormously.”

So Boone turned to Hill to head the order. DH Giancarlo Stanton briefly made things easier when he hit a three-run home run to center in the fifth against the Guardians' second-best arm, Cade Smith, increasing the score to 6-2.

Giancarlo Stanton hits a three-run home run in ALCS Game 4.

Stanton's home run in the fifth gave the Yankees some breathing room. / David Richard-Imagn Images

Was Smith tired?

“Everyone is tired,” says Guardians manager Stephen Vogt. “I think we used them a lot. We had. This is who we are.”

Twelve outs left. Boone brought in Jake Cousins ​​for the first time in the series and got a little greedy when the right-hander made it through the sixth. “I tried to steal a couple of outs when Cousins ​​came out,” Boone said.

Cousins ​​walked the first batter of the seventh and allowed a single to hit second. Boone summoned Holmes and watched him go strikeout-double-double-walk and score three times. So Leiter came in with one out and the go-ahead run.

“The thing I told him before the game was: You could find yourself in the biggest position of this game,” Boone said.

Leiter brought Jhonkensy Noel, who scored a game-winning drive in Game 3, to his right and beat Andrés Giménez to end the threat. He allowed the tying run in the eighth when he failed to play first base, just one of a half-dozen sloppy moments on the field for both teams. But that gave the Yankees a chance to play against the game's best closer – who also suffers from overexposure.

Emmanuel Clase just had one of the best seasons in history, finishing with a 0.61 ERA, but he was absolutely lethal in the playoffs. The Guardians have lost five games; In three of them he gave up a lead.

“He throws a lot,” Boone said. “Like a lot of our guys, a lot of their guys made a shot in the postseason.”

The Yankees strung together two singles, a stolen base, an error and another single to extend their lead to 8-6. For the record, they turned to Kahnle.

“I realize how much most of these guys threw,” Boone said. But he wanted to win the game and do so without Weaver's involvement.

“It's hard to go into a game and say Weaver is down, but you also have to have a little discipline getting through it,” Boone said. “That’s the challenge.”

Kahnle took advantage of a questionable third strike call to get Thomas, then walked Noel and allowed a single to Giménez. With runners on first and second, he triggered a flyout and a grounder at second to end the run.

Perhaps no one breathed easier than Boone, who spent another night solving the equation. He would certainly prefer to stay away from Kahnle in Game 5, although his replacement insists he will “do everything I can to be available tomorrow.” He might even throw a fastball.

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