Get ready for an exciting Mountain West Conference matchup tonight as the Fresno State Bulldogs take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET under the bright lights of historic Mackey Stadium in Reno. The game will be broadcast on CBSSN.

These two groups use offense every time they meet, and my Fresno State vs. Nevada predictions expect that trend to continue.

Read on as I explain why I like the over with free college football picks for Friday, October 18th.

Fresno State vs. Nevada prediction and best bet

My best choice
Over 50.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Nothing says football like a Friday night in October, and this Mountain West football game should provide plenty of excitement.

The Fresno State Bulldogs come into this game looking for a win. They have lost two straight contests, including a 59-14 loss 14 days ago at UNLV.

Fresno State's fast-paced defense leaves a lot to be desired. They allow an average of 4.5 yards per carry. Last week, the Bulldogs allowed Washington State 123 yards on the ground and 252 rushing yards a fortnight ago at UNLV.

The Bulldogs' stop unit will be in trouble this week.

Nevada Wolf Pack quarterback Brendon Lewis and his backfield are averaging 5.15 yards per carry and 215 rushing yards per game. Lewis rushed for 157 yards and a TD against Oregon State. He only threw for 53 yards, but this kid can get it done when he needs to.

Lewis has more than 1,100 passing yards with nine scoring strikes and five picks. If Lewis hasn't already caused enough trouble, there's more; The Wolfpack backfield features three rushers with over 200 yards and three wideouts with over 200 receiving yards.

Nevada will move the chains with their feet offensively, but their defense will have trouble containing Bulldogs quarterback Mikey Keene. This Wolf Pack D unit intercepted four passes against Washington State last week, but has otherwise been mediocre this season when it comes to the pass Keene will pick apart.

Keene has thrown for 1,576 passing yards with as many scores as he has interceptions (8), along with a trio of receivers with more than 300 receiving yards. Keene's aerial attack should have great success against a Nevada defense that surrendered 254 yards through the air and scored 10 TD receptions.

That's why I'm playing the over here.

The defense will struggle against the respective O units. Neither of these stops anyone permanently. Both offenses will move the chains and score points while the defense will struggle to prevent what each offense does best. These two groups have exceeded the point total in four of their last five meetings and should do so again on Friday night.

Fresno State vs. Nevada, Match Game (SGP)

Over 50.5

Savion Red can touch down at any time

Mac Dalena can land at any time

I like Nevada running back Savion Red and Bulldogs wideout Mac Dalena finding the end zone to push this total over the number.

Red scored four touchdowns against Oregon State last week. He also leads the team in rushing TDs (7) and yards (523). He will see plenty of calls to his number and should be successful. Six of Fresno State's rushing TDs allowed have come in the red zone, and I expect the Nevada defender to score at least one.

Dalena co-leads Fresno State in TDs (4). He's Keene's main target and Dalena delivers. The Wolfpack scored 10 goals, including four in the red zone. I expect Keene to target Dalena frequently and for the senior wideout to find the end zone at least once.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Fresno State vs. Nevada odds

Live odds for Fresno State vs. Nevada

Fresno State vs. Nevada opening odds

• Fresno State vs. Nevada spread: Nevada +3.5
• Fresno State vs. Nevada Moneyline: Fresno State -160, Nevada +130
• Fresno State vs. Nevada Over/Under: 51.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Fresno State vs. Nevada spread and over/under analysis

• Fresno State is 3-3-0 ATS. BetMGM opened the Bulldogs at -3.5 (-110), but that number has dropped to -3 (-105).
• Nevada opened as a +3.5 (-110) underdog at home. The Wolf Pack is 4-2-0 ATS and has matched that number in their last three ballgames.
• The over/under numbers have fallen to 51.5 (-110) since BetMGM's opener.
• Fresno State is 3-3-0 to the over, while Nevada games have ended over-the-over in four of the last six games.

Fresno State vs. Nevada betting trend worth knowing

Nevada has reached the game total over in eight of its last 13 games (+2.50 units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Fresno State vs. Nevada.

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