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What this late transition to La Niña means for winter in Michigan
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What this late transition to La Niña means for winter in Michigan

The National Weather Service on Thursday scrapped the initial proposal and released the 2024-2025 winter outlook for Southeast Michigan.

El Niño is still going strong with two outs, La Niña is preparing in the hole. Mother Nature is on the mound and ready to throw curveballs at Metro Detroit Sandy Koufax. The game is a triple-header game that takes place in December, January and February.

If you're not a baseball fan, perhaps understanding the players can help you figure out how this winter game will go.

El Niño is typically warmer and drier in winter. La Niña is known for some pretty cold and snowy Grand Slams. But this year La Niña is late and quite weak. Think of the Punch and Judy hitter.

At this point you are either amused or confused, and in either case I appreciate your indulgence. But since I'm a better broadcaster than a ballplayer, let's get to the business of the upcoming winter season.

The National Weather Service on Thursday scrapped the initial proposal and released the 2024-2025 winter outlook for Southeast Michigan. (Copyright 2024 by WDIV ClickOnDetroit – All rights reserved.)

The National Weather Service is forecasting slightly average temperatures for the eastern part of the state and above-average precipitation for all of Michigan this winter.

La Niña was expected to arrive late last winter, but El Niño decided to stay a little longer. The result was the warmest winter on record in the continental U.S. and worldwide.

The National Weather Service on Thursday scrapped the initial proposal and released the 2024-2025 winter outlook for Southeast Michigan. (Copyright 2024 by WDIV ClickOnDetroit – All rights reserved.)

So you'd think La Niña would do the opposite and bring cold weather, right? Remember those curveballs I mentioned earlier? This is where things get difficult.

Only four La Niña episodes since 1950 have occurred this late in the year, and all have been fairly weak. This La Niña is also expected to be weak, so we may not see the typical effects.

Strong La Niñas are associated with consistent weather throughout the season, but a weaker event means other climate phenomena could cause us a few problems.

This could mean colds and mild outbreaks. Although the forecast is not a snowfall forecast, heavy rain or freezing rain may occur if there is above-average precipitation during a mild period.

If it happens during a cold snap, ski areas could get the winter they've been dreaming of for years.

Grab your foam fingers, people. This is going to be one hell of a winter season. Now let's play ball!

Copyright 2024 by WDIV ClickOnDetroit – All Rights Reserved.

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