Welcome to The wrong reading. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week's upcoming matchups. The goal is to understand how an upcoming matchup might unfold in terms of each offense's ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be if they try to pass? How far will they be able to run the ball?

It's impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by examining the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that may not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signals that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.

A note on the images below: A few weeks ago we made an adjustment to the way the leaderboards are displayed and the color coding. All rankings and colors are now based on the offensive perspective. A 1st place in the defensive rating suggests that they are the easiest to hit for the opposing offenses. Likewise, a ranking of 32nd place indicates that one team represents the most difficult duel. This makes it much easier to look at the images and see which matchups are the most favorable for the offense.

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints

We're right to be skeptical of the Broncos' entire offense. They average less than 5 yards per play and only 18.7 points per game. Still, they enter Week 7 as 2.5-point away favorites against the Saints. There are two main reasons for this. First, Denver has one of the toughest pass defenses in the league.

Only two teams allow less pass length per play. Only two teams are better at generating pressure against opposing QBs. That's in large part because only one team blitzes more than Denver, but that aggressiveness hasn't stopped the Broncos from ranking second in average yardage allowed. Meanwhile, New Orleans' offensive passing stats are misleading in many ways. On the one hand, Derek Carr was the QB behind many of the metrics – he doesn't play. On the other hand, Chris Olave has been ruled out as he continues to recover from a concussion. Rashid Shaheed was ruled out due to a knee injury. Bub means was targeted eight times in Week 6. He caught five of them for 45 yards and a touchdown. He'll need to repeat that performance – or better yet, improve on it – if the Saints hope to get something going in the passing game.

The other reason Denver is favored is that New Orleans' pass defense was very generous.

The Saints pass rush is just a minor annoyance, and no team allows more YAC than expected. True, the Broncos have not excelled in the passing game. But their receivers provide separation and their offensive line is above average. They could have more success against New Orleans.

No player had more than six targets for the Broncos in Week 6 – Courtland Sutton, Devaughn VeleAnd Javonte Williams Everyone was equal in team leadership. Sutton found the end zone and Vele managed 78 scoreless yards. It was only the second game Vele had played, but in his first game he was targeted eight times. He hasn't been particularly efficient at all of his targets, but at 6'3″ tall, with 4.47″ speed and a 126″ broad jump, he has a great catch radius.

On the other hand, Vele is a rookie WR who turns 27 in December. Needless to say, the recent sample of successful 27-year-old rookie WRs doesn't exist.

The only other positive note for Denver's Week 6 game is this Troy Franklin caught a TD pass – no redemption for his devastating drop in the end zone in Week 5, but we're making progress. Franklin was only targeted three times, but he ran 27 routes, just one fewer than Vele and twice as many routes Marvin Mimswho was also targeted three times. Franklin's profile is much stronger than Vele's and we know he already has the trust of his quarterback. Bo Nix The targeted pass happens to Franklin almost nine times per game at Oregon.

The Broncos could also have success locally, even if that hasn't happened so far in 2024.

New Orleans offers one of the easiest rushing matchups, both in terms of total rushing yards per play and especially yards before contact. However, they are good at limiting yards after contact, which is one of Denver's strengths. This could be an opportunity for the Broncos' backs to make a bit of a change to their overall running profile, or it could be an opportunity for them to get involved in the passing game.

Things are also looking difficult for New Orleans on the ground.

The Broncos' only relative weakness is allowing yards before contact. This happens to be one of the things the Saints are least bad at. Given their lack of weapons in the passing game, they'll probably get there Alvin Kamara the focus of their offensive attack. While his commitment to the passing game is the biggest value for him, that part will also depend on it Spencer Rattlers Ability to deliver the ball.