Netflix will report its summer quarter earnings on Thursday, when media analysts expect an announcement you really, really won't like.

In a note sent to his clients (and obtained by IndieWire), Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney predicted a Netflix price increase “over the next 3 to 9 months.”

A Netflix spokesperson did not respond to IndieWire's request for comment for this story.

While Mahaney's prediction is a little more specific than most, it's not exactly a bold prediction. Netflix's last monthly price increase came exactly a year ago, and it was a “success,” LightShed Partners analyst Rich Greenfield wrote on Wednesday.

We are due and we know it. (It's now common practice for streamers to increase their rates at regular intervals: Disney+ increased its monthly price in October 2024, just as it did in October 2023. Paramount+ favors increases in June.)

You and I may not like this inevitability, but NFLX holders do.

“Investors will likely need to see evidence of price leverage in 2025 to offset slowing account growth,” Andrew Marok wrote in his note to Raymond James clients. They don't necessarily need to make a move immediately, he wrote, but without much room for subscriber growth, particularly in the U.S. and Canada, Netflix “will need to show some progress by early 2025.”

Everyone out here pays attention to the schedule, but they all come to the same conclusion: it's a matter of time before your bill goes up. Well, maybe not for those with the lowest monthly bills.

Members of Netflix's ad-supported tier and the popular “Standard” plan were spared last time's price hikes – a “surgical” maneuver, Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese told IndieWire. She expects a similar strategy to continue if Netflix raises rates again – whenever that is.

The ad-supported tier costs $6.99/month today, and in theory it will stay that way. The most popular plan is $15.49/month today, but maybe not for long. The top option costs $22.99 and the old “Basic” plan has been discontinued. (Reese is less certain than others that we'll get another Netflix price increase announcement in another third-quarter shareholder letter.)

Like other established streamers, Netflix is ​​pushing users toward the ad-supported tier (though not as aggressively as Amazon Prime Video). Advertising sales just add up in a big way, and even the mighty Netflix hasn't met that goal – yet. (Maybe you won't spend your first decade publicly swearing off advertising?)

The average revenue per user of a subscription service (ARPU – what Netflix calls ARM, or average revenue per member) may be higher at the ad-supported tier than at the ad-free tier. If Netflix shareholders want to see their NFLX shares near $800 apiece, a new and significant revenue stream will need to emerge.

Netflix's big comeback was closely tied to its crackdown on password sharing. The resulting sales surge is all but over; Reese and her Wedbush colleagues predict that Netflix's advertising tier will “become the key growth driver in 2026.”

Shortly after Netflix's third-quarter earnings release (and possible price increase announcement) at 4:00 p.m. ET, media analysts will have the opportunity to participate in a question-and-answer session with senior Netflix leadership. General etiquette for earnings calls is to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up answer; Rich Greenfield has nine.

On Wednesday, Greenfield released his full list of questions for co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters (and several other executives). Number 1: “Will there be a price increase by 2024?”

It's also the number one question that concerns us, Rich.