A week after AccuWeather predicted a mild, snowless winter for the New Jersey region, state meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued similar forecasts for winter temperatures but mixed forecasts for our state's snow potential.

In its winter outlook for the 2024-2025 season released Thursday morning, NOAA said a slowly developing La Niña weather pattern will likely play a role in the development of the upcoming season.

The agency's Climate Prediction Center is predicting warmer-than-average temperatures in the Garden State — along with New York and most of Pennsylvania — but has not made specific predictions about how wet or snowy the upcoming winter season will be in those areas of the country.

The winter outlook says the New Jersey region has “equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average total seasonal precipitation.”

La Niña is a natural climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific remain cooler than average for extended periods of time. This type of pattern can change the track and strength of snowstorms in any part of the United States by influencing the jet stream.

Over the past 30 years, many winters that experienced La Niña conditions resulted in milder temperatures and average or below-average snowfall across the eastern United States. However, during some La Niña winters, New Jersey was hit by heavy snowfall.

So La Niña conditions don't always have the same result.

In addition, the La Niña pattern predicted for this winter is likely to be weaker, so its effects may not be as clear-cut as usual, said Jon Gottschalck, head of the Operational Prediction Branch of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

The NOAA Winter Outlook covers the three meteorological winter months of December, January and February and does not include specific snowfall forecasts.

In New Jersey, snowfall averages about 34 inches per year in the northern part of the state, about 28 inches in Central Jersey, and about 18 inches in South Jersey.

NOAA Precipitation Outlook

Here's a look at what NOAA predicts for different regions of the country this winter:

• Above-average weather conditions are most likely in the Great Lakes states, and above-average precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the northern part of the United States. These probabilities are highest in parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky.
• The greatest chance of drier than average conditions is in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Texas and southern New Mexico.
• Much of California, the central Plains states, and the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, DC have equal chances of below-average, near-average, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.

AccuWeather winter forecast

Last week, AccuWeather's forecast for the 2024-2025 winter season was released. It forecasts above-average temperatures and less snow than normal for the Garden State as well as many major cities and metropolitan areas in the eastern United States, including New York. Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Boston.

AccuWeather forecasters said warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and North Pacific, a weak La Niña weather pattern and a narrow polar vortex are three major factors contributing to the weather outlook this winter.

Current weather radar