As 2024 began and political insiders began compiling slates of competitive Senate races, few took a second look at Texas. Republican Senator Ted Cruz was considered a candidate for another term despite his poor record and unpopularity.

But as Election Day approaches, the competition in the Lone Star State becomes more interesting.

Public polls generally show the Republican incumbent with a small but steady lead over Rep. Colin Allred, a popular Texas Democrat and former NFL star. But private polling is causing fresh concerns for Cruz and his party: Politico reported this week that the latest round of polling by the Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate Republicans' top super PAC, showed Cruz's lead over Allred “slid from three points.” Mid-September to 1 point in October.”

This follows Chris LaCivita, a senior campaign adviser to Donald Trump, who recently wrote on social media, “What the hell is going on with the Senate race in Texas?” A new Wall Street Journal report on the contest asked the headline : “Is Ted Cruz screwing up his re-election race?”

Against this background, the controversial senator began to complain a little about the support within the party. The Hill reported:

“Mitch McConnell runs the largest Republican super PAC in the country and has $400 million, but that super PAC is used to reward the Republican senators who obey him and to punish those who dare to oppose him to face him,” Cruz told conservative talk show host Mark Levin.

The Texan went on to complain that “not a penny” from the Senate Republican super PAC's coffers had been spent on his race before imploring Levin's audience to send him some money.

Hours later, Donald Trump used his social media platform to post a few new Cruz endorsements, which likely wasn't a coincidence.

I don't want to claim that I have any special insight into the race, but as a general rule, confident candidates who are on the path to victory don't look and sound like Cruz currently looks and sounds.