According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), there is a moderate chance of cyclogenesis in the next 48 to 72 hours due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is currently in Phase 4. An active MJO phase could increase convective activity and increase the likelihood that the storm will further strengthen.

The system is expected to make its way towards the coasts of north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh. Some model forecasts, including IMD GFS, suggest it could escalate into a severe cyclone by October 16, potentially becoming a severe cyclone Landing near Chennai by October 17th.

The models differ in terms of intensity

Different models predict different results about the exact strength and path of the system as it approaches the coast.

According to the TWC meteorologists, the well-developed low pressure area has been visible over the central-southern Bay of Bengal since this morning. This system is likely to move west-northwestwards and approach the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts by Thursday and remain there until Friday. While numerical weather prediction models predict further intensification of the system, most of them expect up to depressionnot one Cyclonic storm currently.

However, IMD GFS has indicated rapid intensification of the system into a severe cyclonic storm on Wednesday and landfall south of Chennai as a severe category storm on Thursday, October 17.

The morning bulletin from IMD's Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) also mentions that the European model ECMWF – known for better cyclone forecasts – does not indicate further intensification. The model indicates that the well-marked LPA moves west-northwest and crosses the coast of south Andhra Pradesh as a low pressure area.

Weather warning for this week

The brewing cyclonic system is expected to bring widespread rainfall in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Yanam and coastal Andhra Pradesh. Over the next few days, these regions will experience relatively widespread light to moderate rainfall over the next three to four days, with extremely heavy rainfall forecast for October 16.

Accordingly, the IMD issued one Red warning (means “take action”) over the coast of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry on October 16 and on Orange alert (means “be prepared”) on October 15th. The Orange alert will continue on October 17 across Tamil Nadu.

Within the districts of Tamil Nadu, Tiruvallur, Chennai, Kancheepuram, Chengalpattu, Cuddalore, Villupuram, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam and Tiruvarur, Puducherry and Karaikal areas will be included a red warning on October 16th.

The IMD has also issued squally warnings along the affected coastal areas, with wind speeds of 40-50 km/h and gusts of up to 60 km/h expected. Fishermen are advised to remain onshore as moderate to rough sea conditions are expected in the southeast, southwest and central Bay of Bengal, which will worsen as the system intensifies. These conditions are expected to last until October 17 before gradually easing.

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