After two weeks of talk, the deal most people expected finally happened when the Las Vegas Raiders traded wide receiver Davante Adams to the New York Jets, reuniting Adams with his old quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

It was widely reported that the Raiders were pursuing a second-round pick and more for the star wideout in the upcoming NFL Draft. But the organization and owner Mark Davis were unwilling to cover any portion of Adams' salary to make this happen. In return, Las Vegas only received a third-round pick from New York.

Granted, the selection is conditional and can be moved to the second round, but those conditions are difficult. Either the Jets must play at least the AFC Championship Game with Adams on the active roster, or he must become a first- or second-team AP All-Pro this season.

Both scenarios are very unlikely.

Jets playoff chances

Of course, the quarterback situation is much better and the Jets have a better chance of turning their season around than the Raiders. But the irony of this trade is that Adams, who is chasing rings at the end of his career, goes from a dysfunctional 2-4 team to a dysfunctional 2-4 team.

New York is currently two games behind Buffalo in the AFC East standings, and the Bills have the early tiebreaker after beating the Jets on Monday night. These teams still have a game to play against each other, but New York can no longer gain a direct lead after losing their first game. This makes it unlikely that the team will win the division.

Sure, a wild card spot is still open for the Jets, as the Steelers, Chargers and Colts currently occupy the fifth through seventh spots, while the Broncos, Dolphins and Bengals are the other teams considered in the AFC playoff picture. on the hunt” apply.

Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images

However, only two teams in NFL history have made the playoffs with an interim head coach – the 2021 Raiders (shoutout to Rich Bisaccia) and the 1961 Houston Oilers. Additionally, according to PlayoffStatus.com, the Jets only have a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs and a three percent chance of reaching the conference championship.

Granted, the addition of Adams may improve those odds, but New York's coaching issues extend beyond the head coach. One of Jeff Ulbrich's first moves as interim coach was to strip Nathaniel Hackett of his playing skills and put Todd Downing in charge.

The move is justified as Hackett ranked 29th in points scored last season and was 25th in points per game (18.6) before the demotion, but Downing is no better.

With the Raiders in 2017, Downing took over the seventh-ranked offense the year before and transformed it into the 23rd-ranked unit. In his final season as the Titans' offensive coordinator two years ago, Tennessee finished 28th in scoring.

So Adams will help improve New York's offense, but to the point where the team ends up winning the AFC East and two playoff games – both of which will likely be on the road – it seems highly unlikely. The Jets are more than one receiver away from defeating the Chiefs, Texans, Ravens and Bills from MetLife Stadium.

All-Pro odds

Even more understandable is that the three-time All-Pro receives the individual accolades included in the terms of the trade. However, he is well behind the eight ball after missing the last three games of the season.

While stats are only part of the equation, Adams currently ranks 57th among wide receivers with 209 yards and just one touchdown. That puts him 240 yards and three touchdowns away from his current top-six spot among wide receivers and has 195 yards to gain to even be in the top 10.

To put it in perspective, if Adams and Rodgers repeat their 2020 performance, when the wideout posted the highest yards per game of his career (98.1) over the next 11 games, he will finish with 1,288 yards. Last season, Mike Evans had the fewest receiving yards of the AP All-Pro wideouts with 1,255 and every other receiver had over 1,300 yards.

So Adams would have to hit the ground running in New York and hit his best yards per game to be in the conversation based on last year's numbers.

A big reason Evans received the award last season was because he scored the most touchdowns in the NFL with 13. Considering that Adams is currently four touchdowns behind Evans, Chris Godwin, Ja'Marr Chase and his new teammate Allen Lazard, the league lead doesn't seem feasible.

Long story short: Don't get your hopes up that the Raiders end up getting the second-round pick from the Jets in this trade.