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Davante Adams traded to the Jets: Fantasy football implications
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Davante Adams traded to the Jets: Fantasy football implications

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams looks on before an NFL football game between the Raiders and the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)

The Las Vegas Raiders traded wide receiver Davante Adams to the New York Jets in exchange for a conditional third-round pick. (AP Photo/David Becker)

Finally, the Davante Adams trade news has finally dropped! On Tuesday morning, October 15th, the Raiders traded Davante Adams to the New York Jets.

As many had suspected, he is traveling to New York to reunite with his former quarterback Aaron Rodgers – again in green, but this time for the Jets, who are looking to get their 2-4 season back on track.

Let's take a look at what the news means for your fantasy football teams.

There's no doubt that it took some time for Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson to develop a better relationship, but in Weeks 5 and 6, fantasy football managers got a glimpse of what they're truly capable of. Wilson finished among the top six fantasy receivers with more than 100 receiving yards and a score in each of those games, although he did so with 33 total targets.

Obviously, Adams' presence will mean a lower target share for Wilson. In each of the seasons that Aaron Rodgers began and ended with Adams in the lineup (2016, 2018-2021), Adams was targeted on no less than 19.5% of his routes per PFF. In fact, in three of those five seasons, he posted a target rate of 29.5% or better on routes he ran. Simply put, Rodgers is looking for Adams early and often, which will likely limit the ceiling of these two wideouts going forward.

The good news for Wilson? While he will certainly lose targets against Adams, it could be good news for the efficiency of the targets he gets. Since being drafted in 2021, Wilson has scored 83 times while being double-teamed in coverage – the fourth-most among wide receivers in that span.

Of course, what Adams gains in this Jets offense is the quality of targets he receives. In the last two seasons, Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell ranked 27th or lower among the 35 QBs with more than 250 attempts in the last two seasons in accurate shooting percentage, per PFF; This results in a low catchable target rate (70.6%), which ranks 62nd among 96 qualified wide receivers.

What he loses in “elite” targets, he will likely make up for in overall quality of targets while benefiting from the attention Wilson receives from opposing defenses. Remember the note about Wilson's high target rate against double teams in coverage? Adams isn't too far behind in this metric, as he had 77 such targets in the same time frame (seventh-most).

TL;DR – Each of these elite wide receivers should be considered weekly WR2 options with top-5 upside. Although they eat up each other's total volume, they should benefit enormously in terms of the target open rate.

Through the first six weeks of the season, Allen Lazard was a thorn in the side of fantasy managers thanks to a strong relationship with Rodgers. Lazard had the same number of end zone targets (4) as Wilson in that span, scored two more touchdowns (albeit one with a Hail Mary) and only 45 fewer yards.

While Adams and Wilson are clearly the best wide receivers in this offense, Lazard will likely still play a role that partially negates the overall advantage each of them represents individually. Lazard is clearly an integral part of Rodgers' inner circle of trust, and that's worth a lot. While Adams' arrival undoubtedly does the most damage to him, he will likely still do at least some work in the red zone, which may keep him in the mix as a weekly flex consideration in plus matchups.

Rookie tight end Brock Bowers has already dominated most conversations about the Raiders' offense this year. With Adams now permanently off the scoring list, there's little doubt that, barring an injury, Bowers will likely lead this team in receiving yards and possibly receiving touchdowns (though it's still an open question). how many of them will be achieved this year).

Bowers currently leads all tight ends with 37 receptions and 384 receiving yards (the next highest totals are Trey McBride and George Kittle with 28 receptions and Dallas Goedert with 301 receiving yards). Given that most other “elite” tight end options face more competition for targets (Sam LaPorta with Amon-Ra St. Brown, McBride with Marvin Harrison Jr., Mark Andrews with Isaiah Likely), It seems like there may not be a safer option at the position right now than Bowers.

Stay tuned for more fantasy implications from the massive Davante Adams trade

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