For a team that entered the season as favorites to win the AFC East for the first time since 1999, the New York Jets find themselves at an important crossroads as they prepare to face the New York Jets in a key divisional showdown on Monday night Buffalo Bills to compete.

The franchise sent shockwaves through the locker room and across the NFL last Tuesday when it fired coach Robert Saleh and replaced him with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich in the interim leadership role. The move could have numerous implications for the team's future, and when they return to action on “Monday Night Football,” they will test the idea that teams could play better a week after firing a coach.

According to ESPN Research, since 2020, teams that fire their coach midseason are 9-2 in their first game with an interim head coach. Since 2014, that record is 15-4 ATS, with teams covering the spread by 4.2 points per game and increasing their point differential by an average of 16.3.

There are a few caveats to keep in mind. First, if a team fires a coach during the season, the season is generally already lost.

For example, when Brandon Staley was fired after Week 15 last season, the Los Angeles Chargers were 5-9. The team was essentially already eliminated from playoff contention, scoring 12.5 points against the juggernaut Bills in Week 16. This huge spread allowed LA to easily cover despite the public strongly supporting Buffalo with 86% of bets and 81.6% of handle, per ESPN BET. Bookmakers say such a statement is based on fixtures and recent performances rather than changes in the coaching staff.

“(The Chargers) were going through a stretch where they scored about 17 points in three games before this layoff,” DraftKings sports betting director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “The Chargers were unbetted in this game. The Bills were coming off of beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead and the Cowboys at home. So (the public) wasn’t on the Chargers’ side in that game.”

So it's fascinating that the Jets not only appeared as home underdogs on “Monday Night Football,” but were even shortened, according to DraftKings, despite the overwhelming public support for Buffalo, both shortly after the news and throughout the week .

BetMGM and ESPN BET report more than 71% of tickets supporting the Bills, with the latter reporting New York accounts for 60.3% of tickets. Still, the Jets were a consensus 2.5-point underdog after Week 5 and now see a line of +1 or +1.5, depending on the book.

The tight spread is an indication that the Jets still have a lot of work to do. ESPN FPI says New York has a 57.5% chance of making the playoffs, which is actually a slight improvement from the 57% at the start of the season. Some sportsbooks are still offering negative odds on the Jets playing in the postseason, and FanDuel says there has been “sustained money coming in” on the regular-season win totals and odds to win the AFC East.

The second factor that may influence the “coach firing shock” is the emotional reaction of the team. In another example from 2023, the Las Vegas Raiders fired Josh McDaniels after Week 8 and replaced him with current full-time head coach Antonio Pierce – a “player-coach” for all intents and purposes. The Raiders responded by defeating the New York Giants 30-6 the following week, easily erasing their -1.5 lead.

Emotions are of course one of the most difficult aspects of line design that bookmakers try to take into account.

“I believe in it, I’m not sure how much adjustment we can make to it,” Avello said. “I can't look at the emotions of the game because I don't know those emotions. I can assume what they will be like, but I don’t know how long they will last once the game starts.”

It remains to be seen how this intangible emotional factor will impact the Jets. Saleh seemed very popular, but so did Ulbrich, and then there's the rampant speculation about quarterback Aaron Rodgers' attitude to the whole situation. If nothing else, it will hopefully be an entertaining contest for bettors and casual fans alike.