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Elon Musk is preparing the robotaxi on which he is betting Tesla's future
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Elon Musk is preparing the robotaxi on which he is betting Tesla's future

(Bloomberg) — Elon Musk went all out to get robot taxis on the road, foregoing a widely expected cheaper car, laying off teams focused on other projects and downplaying Tesla Inc.'s (TSLA) sales decline.

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So when Musk finally unveils autonomous taxi prototypes late Thursday, the CEO will have a lot to prove. He has promised nothing less than a new era of transportation in which Teslas with empty driver's seats drive around with paying passengers, making their owners money while they sleep or work.

Although Musk for years prematurely predicted that autonomous Teslas were just around the corner, investors have been bidding up the company's shares in recent months in anticipation of a product that is actually ready, or at least close to it. Meeting those expectations will require credible plans to overtake companies like Alphabet Inc.-backed Waymo, which leads a number of companies already offering driverless rides.

“If they just show something that doesn't really demonstrate the technology, a prototype vehicle that doesn't move, that's going to pop like a lead balloon,” said Gene Munster, managing partner at growth investment firm Deepwater Asset Management.

The event, which Tesla has dubbed “We, Robot” – a likely reference to Isaac Asimov's collection of short science fiction stories “I, Robot” – is scheduled for 7 p.m. California time at the Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. film studio nearby from Los Angeles begin Angeles. Among those invited are Wall Street analysts and many of Tesla's most prominent influencers.

Here's what awaits you:

  • Musk described the event's flagship product as Tesla's purpose-built robotaxi, or cybercab. It is expected to differ from the automaker's other models in that it does not require a human driver to be present to operate the car.

  • Tesla's robotaxis will likely use a combination of cameras and computing power to navigate the streets. While self-driving vehicles from General Motors' Cruise and Waymo also rely on laser-based sensors called lidar, Musk has dismissed them as too expensive and unnecessary.

  • Tesla has kept the robot taxi's final design under wraps, but the vehicle will have two front seats and two doors that open upward like butterfly wings, people familiar with the matter say.

  • There is a possibility that Tesla will also unveil another new car. Some investors believe Musk will unveil a type of robovan that can carry a dozen or more people or be used as an autonomous delivery vehicle.

  • For the Cybercab to work, Tesla will have to make major advances in artificial intelligence.

  • Thousands of existing Tesla owners have been paying thousands of dollars for years for a range of features the company markets as Full Self-Driving, or FSD. The company's driver assistance features require constant monitoring and do not make the vehicles autonomous.

  • The CEO is also expected to talk about Tesla's plans to develop FSD for its semi-truck and how he sees the technology moving cargo, two people familiar said. However, there will be no Semi with FSD demonstrations at the event, the people said, asking not to be identified because they were not authorized to comment.

  • Assuming Tesla can achieve the necessary technological breakthroughs, it will require regulatory approval to launch.

  • Tesla notably chose to hold the unveiling of its robotaxis in a Warner Bros. parking lot with off-public streets. In order to offer commercial passenger transportation with autonomous vehicles in California, a deployment permit is required, which Tesla has not applied for. The competitors are further along here.

  • Musk has described the service he wants to offer as a sort of combination of Uber Technologies Inc. and Airbnb Inc. (Joe Gebbia, a co-founder of Airbnb, joined Tesla's board two years ago.)

  • Individual Tesla owners could lend their vehicles to a Tesla fleet when they are not using them. These cars would be complemented by the purpose-built robotaxi to meet demand.

  • Musk has focused on expanding capabilities and eventually producing a humanoid robot called Optimus.

  • Given the event's name “We, Robot,” the CEO is expected to provide some sort of update on the product, which he says will be manufactured in limited quantities starting next year.

  • Although much of the hype leading up to the event revolves around the robotaxi, Tesla has a more immediate problem: The company is on track to post its first annual decline in vehicle sales.

  • Tesla delivered almost 463,000 cars and trucks in the third quarter, missing analysts' estimates. The company had little to say about cheaper models, which were first introduced in April and are scheduled to go into production next year.

  • The company has stated that these vehicles will be built on existing production lines, so they could just be cheaper versions of the best-selling Model 3 sedan or Model Y sport utility vehicle.

Most read by Bloomberg Businessweek

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