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Tomoyuki Sugano is expected to sign with the MLB team this offseason
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Tomoyuki Sugano is expected to sign with the MLB team this offseason

Longtime Nippon Professional Baseball star Tomoyuki Sugano According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, he plans to sign with an MLB team this offseason. After 12 years in the NPB, Sugano more than meets the requirements (nine years of NPB service) to qualify for international free agency, so he is not subject to the rules of the posting system.

Sugano, soon to be 35, is an eight-time NPB All-Star, two-time Central League MVP and two-time winner of the Eiji Sawamura Award, given annually to the NPB's top starting pitcher. After winning his second MVP trophy in 2020, he was drafted by MLB clubs and attracted interest from several teams, including the Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Blue Jays and Rangers. However, he did not sign before the deadline, instead opting to sign a four-year, $40 million contract with the Yomiuri Giants. His contract gave him the option to opt out after each season to pursue international opportunities, and after the first year of the contract he had enough NPB service time to not have been restricted by the posting system. Nevertheless, he decided to stay with the Giants for the entire duration of his contract.

One reason Sugano may have decided not to become a free agent after the 2021, '22 or '23 season was his declining performance. He was outstanding in 2020, posting a 1.97 ERA with a 24.6% strikeout rate over 137.1 innings. However, he had ERAs of 3.19, 3.12 and 3.36 in the following three years. His strikeout rates slowly declined while his home run rates skyrocketed. Additionally, injuries limited him to just 77.2 IP in 2023. His performance from 2021 to 2023 wasn't bad by any means, but it's understandable why he chose not to sacrifice his guaranteed salary.

The 2024 season marked a return to dominance for the Sugano. Over 156.2 IP, he went 15-3 with a 1.67 ERA. His 18.3% strikeout rate was lower than at his peak — he struck out 24.2% of batters from 2016 to 2020 — but he's finding success in new ways as an older pitcher. His 2.6% walk rate in 2024 was the best of his career. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.94 was his best since 2016. Additionally, he only gave up six home runs against the 608 batters he faced, for a home run rate of 0.99%. That's the lowest home run rate of his career and significantly lower than his 2.91% home run rate from 2021-23. As icing on the cake, Sugano also threw three complete games last season. He hadn't thrown a single complete game since 2021.

Now that the four-year contract he signed in the 2020-21 offseason has expired, Sugano has little reason not to give his MLB career another try. According to reporter Francys Romero, the veteran has hired VC Sports Group to represent him in free agency. The starting pitching market will feature many big names this offseason, including Corbin Burnes, Yusei Kikuchi, Max Fried, Jack Flahertyand probably Blake Snellwho has a player option for 2025. Given his age, Sugano won't be seeking a long-term contract, so he could represent an interesting alternative for a team looking to bring in a potential top-flight starting player on a shorter-term trade.

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