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UFC 307: Preview, Props, Odds and Trends
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UFC 307: Preview, Props, Odds and Trends

MMA: UFC 303 Weigh InsJune 28, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Alex Pereira at the weigh-in for UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory attribution: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Alex Pereira makes the third defense of his light heavyweight title, taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event of UFC 307, which begins at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday in Salt Lake City.

Pereira (11-2 MMA), a 37-year-old Brazilian, is fresh off two straight knockout victories against former UFC light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill at UFC 300 in April and Jiri Prochazka at UFC 303 in June.

Rountree (14-5 MMA), a 34-year-old Los Angeles native, is ranked No. 8 in the light heavyweight division after winning five straight fights. In his last appearance, he defeated Anthony Smith by third-round TKO in December to win the title.

Pereira said Thursday at the pre-fight press conference that he greatly respects Rountree Jr. for taking the fight and his willingness and belief as one of the best fighters in the division.

“Khalil is up there,” Pereira said via translation. “You can’t deny that anymore. Despite all the work he has done, he is a great forward in this organization. He got the shot and I’m grateful (to fight him).”

Crooked action

Pereira is one of nine UFC fighters to win championships in multiple weight classes. He won the UFC middleweight title at UFC 281 in November 2022 with an impressive TKO over long-time rival Israel Adesanya. However, Pereira's reign was short-lived as he lost the belt to Adesanya in an immediate rematch at UFC 287 in April 2023.

Pereira is a -470 favorite on DraftKings, where he was the most heavily used fighter on the card, and a -520 favorite on FanDuel, with Rountree a strong underdog at +360 and +350, respectively. The Pereira win by submission (+1600) was the most popular winning method on DraftKings, where the Rountree win by knockout, technical knockout or disqualification is second at +500.

At BetMGM there was also one-sided support for Pereira, who drew 79 percent of the bets and 66 percent of the money at -500.

YOU SAID IT

Rountree said he is staying light and relaxed ahead of the biggest fight of his career. He said he wants this fight to be remembered as a vehicle for those who can achieve anything.

“Ask yourself that question, right?” said Roundtree. “Everyone in the crowd is asking themselves the question, ‘What do you want in life? What do you actually want? Not material. When what matters is a feeling, a vision that you see for yourself. What do you want?' And what's stopping you? That's what I'm wondering right now, and that's what I've always asked myself until now. What's stopping me from getting what I want?

“For me, the answer was within myself. I think a lot of people feel the same way. Often it is ourselves who stop us. For me it's like I've overcome that.” (Feeling) So many times. And I'm at this point now. The challenge is not yet accomplished.

TITLE FIGHT IN THE CO-MAIN EVENT

The co-main event is a title fight featuring UFC women's bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington (16-8 MMA) and former champion Julianna Pena (11-5 MMA). Both women are mainstays in the division and were former housemates on The Ultimate Fighter 18 but never had the opportunity to compete.

Pena won the season and four of her first six UFC matches before earning a title shot against then-champion Amanda Nunes. Pena upset Nunes and won the belt in a one-sided affair at UFC 269 in December 2021, securing a rear-naked choke in the second round.

Similar to the Adesanya-Pereira rivalry, Pena's championship run lasted less than a year. At UFC 277 in July 2022, Nunes won all the points and took back the belt. She defended it again the following summer against Irene Aldana at UFC 289 before retiring after the win.

Pennington ultimately claimed the vacant title by winning her sixth straight fight, defeating Mayra Bueno Silva via decision at UFC 297 in January.

Pennington was the -185 favorite at BetMGM, with the odds increasing to -150, despite 62 percent of the total bets and 53 percent of the money being drawn to beat Pena (+125).

OTHER MAIN CARD FIGHTS

ROMAN DOLIDZE VS. KEVIN HOLLAND

The middleweights open the main card. Dolidze will step into the Octagon for the third time this year after bouncing back from a loss to Nassourdine Imavov in February to earn a short-notice unanimous decision win over Anthony Smith at UFC 303.

Dolidze, who has split his UFC time between middleweight and light heavyweight, can snap a two-fight losing streak with a win over Holland, who scored a first-round submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in his most recent outing fight to move up the middleweight ranks. However, he has only won one of his last four fights at middleweight.

Holland opened at -165 at BetMGM, but those odds have shifted to -145 as the public backed him with 61 percent of the money. However, the total stakes were almost split, with Dolidze having a slight lead at 53 percent.

JOSE ALDO VS. MARIO BAUTISTA

This bantamweight bout pits Brazilian Aldo against Bautista, an up-and-coming name facing his toughest test yet. Aldo bounced back from a brief retirement to score a decisive victory over Jonathan Martinez in Rio de Janeiro in May. Bautista, meanwhile, is on a six-fight winning streak. MMA Lab's newest product won a unanimous decision against Ricky Simon.

The public was split: Bautista was backed with 56 percent of the money as the -140 favorite, while Aldo was backed with a whopping 79 percent of the bets – dropping his odds from +130 to +115 by Friday.

KETLEN VIEIRA VS. KAYLA HARRISON

This women's bantamweight bout pits 135-pound mainstay Vieira against newcomer Harrison, who dominated former champion Holly Holm in her UFC debut in April. Vieira, who also has a win over Holm on her resume, lost a split decision to Pennington before defeating Pannie Kianzad.

It's a massive fight for both women, with the winner in a great position to face the winner of Pennington-Pena in the co-main event. Harrison is the biggest favorite on the main card at -1100. That created a one-sided approach for Vieira, who drew 83 percent of the total bets and 80 percent of the money as over 700 underdogs.

–Field level media

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