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3 Things to Keep an Eye on: Odds and Predictions
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3 Things to Keep an Eye on: Odds and Predictions

3-3. FanDuel Sports Network Florida. November 3, 2024, 7:30 p.m. 38. Magic Mavericks Matchup 3/11/24. 3-2. 79. Mavericks with 8.5

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Season series: Tonight in Dallas; March 27 in Orlando

tempo

Out of. Rtg.

Def. Rtg.

eFG%

O.Reb.%

TO%

FTR

Orlando

100.8

111.1

108.7

53.1

26.8

14.4

31.9

Dallas

98.8

111.9

111.0

51.4

28.6

10.7

20.5

Our record: 3-3/2-4 ATS

There's no doubt that the Orlando Magic's first game without Paolo Banchero required some sensitivity. The Magic redefined the roles and tried to figure out how all of these pieces fit back together. And the players got used to their new roles and how they function together.

The Magic got better as the game went on. That was the most important thing to see. The Magic have shown that they will be competitive in the long run. But the pieces are still coming together.

Whether they can convert that competitiveness into more wins is another question entirely. And given the injuries the Magic are dealing with – Wendell Carter (right knee tendonitis) and Goga Bitadze (left foot tendon strain) – the margin for error is still very slim.

And Orlando is currently facing teams that punish any team that makes mistakes.

The Dallas Mavericks are still finding their footing after their trip to the Western Conference Finals last year. Luka Doncic (27.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game) and Kyrie Irving (24.6 points and 5.6 assists per game) will do what they do. The Mavericks are still building the rest of their team and finding their footing despite some impressive wins.

Doncic and Irving are always a handful in their own right. And it will be difficult for an undermanned Magic team to handle that star power, even if Doncic has struggled from deep early in the season and the team hasn't found a way to score beyond its stars.

Magic Mavericks Prediction 3/11/24. 111. 79. Prediction. 104. 38

3. The defense drives the attack

The Orlando Magic are a defensive team. And they know that everything they do has to start with defense, even without Paolo Banchero in the lineup.

From a macro perspective, the Magic's defensive rating of 108.7 this season ranks seventh in the league. Even though the offense fell short early in the season, the Magic's defense remained solid.

But when you watch the game, you don't get the feeling that the Magic are completely in tune defensively.

They left the big quarter to the Memphis Grizzlies, who put them behind last week. They gave up two consecutive 34-point quarters in Wednesday's loss to the Chicago Bulls. In the win over the Indiana Pacers, their defense faltered in the third quarter. And then they suffered a 34-point loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first quarter.

In all of these cases, the defense came together and provided some big moments to make these games competitive or allow the Magic to survive. Orlando managed to reduce a large deficit with a 21-0 run against Memphis. The Magic only gave up 16 points in the fourth quarter in Chicago. They dropped 17 points in the fourth quarter to defeat the Pacers.

Orlando had some standout moments on defense. But the puzzle didn't come together in the entire 48-minute effort. This is what this team is waiting for. And with Banchero out, the Magic need their defense to lead the way. For the most part, this has not yet happened.

2. Jonathan Isaac's Sweet Home

Curiously, Jonathan Isaac had some of his best games in Dallas against the Dallas Mavericks. The American Airlines Center is home to some of its best games ever.

In the 2020 season, Isaac played a near 5×5 game with 13 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, four steals and six blocks. It was the best game of his excellent start to the season before all his injuries.

He then returned to Dallas last year and scored two points on 1-for-2 shooting in under eight minutes. But it was his first start since returning from injury. And then the Magic made the plan to only play him for about eight minutes. And everyone was confused as to why the Magic only played him in that first stint.

It was strange. But Isaac had some of his best moments in Dallas. And his size has caused the Mavericks a lot of problems when he has played.

However, Isaac had a slow start to the season. He's averaging 5.3 points per game and 2.3 sticks per game, but is only shooting 33.3 percent from three-pointers (mostly on threes). Isaac didn't have the breakthrough everyone was hoping for in his first healthy offseason. And even its defensive impact was muted.

Without Paolo Banchero, one has to hope that Jonathan Isaac takes on this new role and makes a clearer impression.

1. Newcomers from the depths

Throughout the offseason, the Orlando Magic have been linked to one name in free agency more than anyone else. Everyone seemed convinced that if Klay Thompson left the Golden State Warriors, he would go to the Orlando Magic.

The reason was simple: the Magic's desperate need for shots.

In the end, Orlando didn't go after Thompson. The team signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope instead. And Thompson joined solid contenders in the Dallas Mavericks.

So far, Dallas has to be happy with what it got in Thompson.

Thompson is averaging 15.6 points per game this season and shooting 38.8 percent on 9.8 3-point attempts per game. Thompson may not have the same defensive energy as he once did, but the shot hasn't gone anywhere. And it has added dynamism to Dallas' more iso-heavy attack.

Meanwhile, Caldwell-Pope has added a lot to the Magic defensively. But his shot hasn't quite come off yet.

Caldwell-Pope made just 5 of 26 3-point shots (19.2 percent). It's one of the most disappointing aspects of the Magic's early season, even if Caldwell-Pope was still dangerous enough to create space for the Magic.

Considering Caldwell-Pope hasn't shot worse than 35 percent from three since 2019, Orlando has to expect his shooting to change. However, this was the worst start from depth for the experienced sniper so far.

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